WA-SurveyUSA: McKenna+1
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Author Topic: WA-SurveyUSA: McKenna+1  (Read 1162 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: July 19, 2012, 01:57:50 AM »

42-41 McKenna/Inslee

http://www.king5.com/news/local/KING-5-poll-Dead-heat-in-race-for-Washington-Governor-162980776.html

(link doesn't work anymore, but the numbers will appear on SUSA's page later anyway)
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CultureKing
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« Reply #1 on: July 19, 2012, 01:24:52 PM »

Whoot! I will take a virtual tie. Though honestly simply judging from how the ground game has played out it feels like McKenna should be up by alot more. Then again the institutional advantage for Inslee is pretty darn strong...
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #2 on: July 19, 2012, 02:49:43 PM »

This may be the only race Dems should win, because WA state has a history of late counting balloting with abscentees and provisionals.
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bgwah
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« Reply #3 on: July 19, 2012, 08:30:14 PM »

Same poll shows Obama up 11.
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sg0508
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« Reply #4 on: July 19, 2012, 10:53:26 PM »

It's the same crap every time in WA state.  The GOP starts out ahead in the Gov race and then their candidate either self-destructs or the democrats come home in the end.  It's unreal.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #5 on: July 22, 2012, 09:21:24 PM »

I think this year might be different though.
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Miles
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« Reply #6 on: July 22, 2012, 09:33:40 PM »

It's the same crap every time in WA state.  The GOP starts out ahead in the Gov race and then their candidate either self-destructs or the democrats come home in the end.  It's unreal.

This. Even later in the 2010 cycle, Rossi was leading Murray in some polls and she still won by almost 5 on election day.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #7 on: July 22, 2012, 10:03:43 PM »

It's the same crap every time in WA state.  The GOP starts out ahead in the Gov race and then their candidate either self-destructs or the democrats come home in the end.  It's unreal.

This. Even later in the 2010 cycle, Rossi was leading Murray in some polls and she still won by almost 5 on election day.

     On the other hand, Rossi didn't have the consistency of leading in most polls in 2010, like McKenna has in this race.
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RI
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« Reply #8 on: July 22, 2012, 10:49:04 PM »

McKenna's lead continues to shrink. I still can't see him actually winning.
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bgwah
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« Reply #9 on: July 23, 2012, 12:47:24 AM »

McKenna's lead continues to shrink. I still can't see him actually winning.

I hope you're right.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #10 on: July 23, 2012, 02:58:53 PM »

Yeah, but this year is different.  They have an unpopular outgoing Democrat governor, a Democrat president running for reelection, and the fact that Dems have controlled the governor's office there for 28 years.  That alone hurts their chances of holding on.  McKenna's lead may have dropped recently, but I think that it's temporary and he will ultimately win it all.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #11 on: July 23, 2012, 03:13:24 PM »

I just read a comment on another site about this poll by someone from Seattle who says that he/she doesn't know anyone from either party who thinks that Inslee has a better shot than McKenna because Inslee hasn't run a particularly exciting campaign (which shows up in this poll: 72 percent of McKenna supporters are enthusiastic compared to only 58 percent of Inslee supporters) and McKenna has done an excellent job of making inroads with Independents and Democratic-leaning constituencies like moderates by prioritizing economic issues over social issues.  If only Republicans did that in more states like Washington, and we would really be a great party again!!!
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Negusa Nagast 🚀
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« Reply #12 on: July 23, 2012, 03:14:59 PM »

Yeah, but this year is different.  They have an unpopular outgoing Democrat governor, a Democrat president running for reelection, and the fact that Dems have controlled the governor's office there for 28 years.  That alone hurts their chances of holding on.  McKenna's lead may have dropped recently, but I think that it's temporary and he will ultimately win it all.

I don't see how Democratic coattails would hurt a Democratic candidate. Your first and third points, however, are both valid and good points. Age might be a factor as well; youth is more synonymous with change.

Still, the Democratic lean is strong. If Inslee runs a exemplary campaign he could win in a nail biter.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #13 on: July 24, 2012, 08:45:00 AM »

I really don't think there's ususally much of a coattail effect in any given election, since so many people split their tickets when they vote.  If there is a coattail effect on this race, however, and President Obama loses, then you could see that in the governor's race as well.  But I still think that's unlikely.
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Ogre Mage
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« Reply #14 on: July 24, 2012, 07:15:26 PM »

Obama is not a negative in Washington State.  If anything, his presence on the ticket will boost Democratic turnout -- a boon to Inslee.  Governor races are more about local issues, so there may be no effect at all.  But Obama is not going to become an albatross for Inslee. 

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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #15 on: July 24, 2012, 09:08:52 PM »

I said that I thought it would be unlikely to hurt him.
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« Reply #16 on: July 24, 2012, 09:34:10 PM »

Yeah, but this year is different.  They have an unpopular outgoing Democrat governor, a Democrat president running for reelection, and the fact that Dems have controlled the governor's office there for 28 years.  That alone hurts their chances of holding on.  McKenna's lead may have dropped recently, but I think that it's temporary and he will ultimately win it all.

Do voters tend to throw out the incumbent party if they've been in control a long time? Utah and South Dakota seem to say no.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #17 on: July 24, 2012, 09:39:15 PM »
« Edited: July 24, 2012, 09:40:49 PM by Fuzzybigfoot »

Despite the fact that he has better name recognition, McKenna is still barely above 40%.  This is a pretty good sign for Inslee, I think.  

I forcast Jay will win it in November; maybe by mid-single digits?  Tongue
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Miles
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« Reply #18 on: July 24, 2012, 09:42:41 PM »

Yeah, but this year is different.  They have an unpopular outgoing Democratic governor, a Democratic president running for reelection, and the fact that Dems have controlled the governor's office there for 28 years.  That alone hurts their chances of holding on.  McKenna's lead may have dropped recently, but I think that it's temporary and he will ultimately win it all.

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Ogre Mage
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« Reply #19 on: July 25, 2012, 01:57:35 AM »

I actually think the 28 year run of Democratic governors is a problem for Inslee, but perhaps not for the reason some might suspect.  Unlike in other states, one party control of the governor's mansion has not led to major corruption issues.  But Rob McKenna is the strongest governor candidate the WA GOP has put up in a generation and the solid possibility he might break the 28 year streak is a story -- and a potentially hot one for the press.  This has led to more media coverage and slightly more favorable coverage for McKenna.  For much of the campaign Inslee was simply ignored, which is a big problem given AG McKenna's higher name ID.  And the failure of his campaign to put out its own advertising only magnified the lack of press coverage.

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http://www.thestranger.com/seattle/does-jay-inslee-exist/Content?oid=13101430

Recently, however, Inslee has finally taken to the airwaves.  And McKenna has begun to find the higher level of press attention a double-edged sword as several of his missteps have been chronicled by the local media.


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