IA: Public Policy Polling: Obama up 5

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Iowa President by Public Policy Polling on 2012-07-15

Summary: D: 48%, R: 43%, I: 0%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Tender Branson]

Last months poll had Obama up by about 20 among Indies though, making the old poll an outlier most likely and this new one more accurate (Obama still leads by a few points among Indies).

[Tender Branson]

The sample is 35D 34R.

Junk.

There, I beat krazen to it.

35D, 34R is roughly the current registration in Iowa, if anyone wants to complain about the sample.

[Tender Branson]

I could see Iowa competetive in November, mostly because Republicans have gained 40.000 voters since Nov. 2008 and Democrats lost 70.000 registered voters.

But on the other hand it really depends how the Independents vote and how the likely voters are made up. It doesn't really matter if the GOP had a net gain of 110.000 registered voters, if on election day only 70% of registered GOP voters turn out, while 75% of Democrats do and Independents split 55-45 for Obama. In this case Obama still wins.

[Tender Branson]

The sample is 35D 34R.

Junk.

There, I beat krazen to it.

35D, 34R is roughly the current registration in Iowa, if anyone wants to complain about the sample.

Wow, just by reading krazen's posts, I thought the GOP was far ahead in Iowa.

Actually, I just looked at the IA SoS site and its about 32D 32R 36I.

Yepp, but it depends what you classify as "registered voter". There are "active" and "inactive" voters. Because many Democrats who registered in 2008 didn't vote in 2010, they are now inactive. While Republicans hold about a 20.000 edge in "active voters", Democrats sneak ahead again when "inactive" voters are also added to the total. I think the inactives should be included too to get an accurate picture of the voter registration, mostly because Iowa has election-day registration. So, there's a good chance that the 2008 registered - who didn't vote in the mid-terms - will register again for the presidential election on election day.