IA: Public Policy Polling: Obama up 5

[MorningInAmerica]

This months results represent a shift from May when Obama led by 10pts in Iowa (51-41%).

[MorningInAmerica]

Last months poll had Obama up by about 20 among Indies though, making the old poll an outlier most likely and this new one more accurate (Obama still leads by a few points among Indies).

Actually if you look at all of PPPs polls this cycle, Obama's led by anywhere from 4 to 10 pts in Iowa. Of the 7 polls theyve taken since 2011, Obama's led by 10 twice, by 9 once.

The sample is 35D 34R.

Junk.

There, I beat krazen to it.

That's roughly the same as the 2008 turnout in Iowa: 34D 33R.

[MorningInAmerica]

The sample is 35D 34R.

Junk.

There, I beat krazen to it.

You forgot to correct the -5 required PPP rule. I'm sure Romney is pleased with these results!

PPP skews D, but not that D.  Accounting for their usual skew, this poll is in line with my current prediction of Iowa as being a Tossup 40% D.

To be precise, PPP skews 3.1 points towards the Democrats, says Nate Silver, and is the 2nd worst offender of the pollsters tested in terms of house effect. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/22/calculating-house-effects-of-polling-firms/  Also, given all the Rasmussen bashing around here, their house effect is not nearly as strong as PPPs according to this link. In fact, Rasmussen ties CNN for having the smallest house effect.