IA: Public Policy Polling: Obama up 5

[krazen1211]

The sample is 35D 34R.

Junk.

There, I beat krazen to it.

You forgot to correct the -5 required PPP rule. I'm sure Romney is pleased with these results!

[krazen1211]

The sample is 35D 34R.

Junk.

There, I beat krazen to it.

35D, 34R is roughly the current registration in Iowa, if anyone wants to complain about the sample.

Wow, just by reading krazen's posts, I thought the GOP was far ahead in Iowa.

Actually, I just looked at the IA SoS site and its about 32D 32R 36I.

Yepp, but it depends what you classify as "registered voter". There are "active" and "inactive" voters. Because many Democrats who registered in 2008 didn't vote in 2010, they are now inactive. While Republicans hold about a 20.000 edge in "active voters", Democrats sneak ahead again when "inactive" voters are also added to the total. I think the inactives should be included too to get an accurate picture of the voter registration, mostly because Iowa has election-day registration. So, there's a good chance that the 2008 registered - who didn't vote in the mid-terms - will register again for the presidential election on election day.

In the mid-terms Iowa's voter registration still had an edge for the Democrats. The GOP edge has nothing at all to do with the midterms. Inactive voters were marked due to not returning a postcard confirming their address or updating their address.

[krazen1211]

The sample is 35D 34R.

Junk.

There, I beat krazen to it.

35D, 34R is roughly the current registration in Iowa, if anyone wants to complain about the sample.

Wow, just by reading krazen's posts, I thought the GOP was far ahead in Iowa.

Actually, I just looked at the IA SoS site and its 32.4D 32R 35.6I as of June.

Well, yes, they are far ahead of 2008 when McCain lost Iowa, and ahead of where they were in 2004 when Bush won Iowa. Overall they are ahead by 21000 votes.