IA: Public Policy Polling: Obama up 5
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Author Topic: IA: Public Policy Polling: Obama up 5  (Read 1239 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: July 17, 2012, 12:51:45 PM »

New Poll: Iowa President by Public Policy Polling on 2012-07-15

Summary: D: 48%, R: 43%, I: 0%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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MorningInAmerica
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« Reply #1 on: July 17, 2012, 01:27:10 PM »

This months results represent a shift from May when Obama led by 10pts in Iowa (51-41%).
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2 on: July 17, 2012, 01:31:34 PM »

Last months poll had Obama up by about 20 among Indies though, making the old poll an outlier most likely and this new one more accurate (Obama still leads by a few points among Indies).
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Miles
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« Reply #3 on: July 17, 2012, 01:33:57 PM »

The sample is 35D 34R.

Junk.

There, I beat krazen to it.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #4 on: July 17, 2012, 01:38:32 PM »

The sample is 35D 34R.

Junk.

There, I beat krazen to it.

35D, 34R is roughly the current registration in Iowa, if anyone wants to complain about the sample.
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MorningInAmerica
polijunkie3057
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« Reply #5 on: July 17, 2012, 01:43:06 PM »

Last months poll had Obama up by about 20 among Indies though, making the old poll an outlier most likely and this new one more accurate (Obama still leads by a few points among Indies).

Actually if you look at all of PPPs polls this cycle, Obama's led by anywhere from 4 to 10 pts in Iowa. Of the 7 polls theyve taken since 2011, Obama's led by 10 twice, by 9 once.

The sample is 35D 34R.

Junk.

There, I beat krazen to it.

That's roughly the same as the 2008 turnout in Iowa: 34D 33R.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #6 on: July 17, 2012, 01:46:54 PM »

I could see Iowa competetive in November, mostly because Republicans have gained 40.000 voters since Nov. 2008 and Democrats lost 70.000 registered voters.

But on the other hand it really depends how the Independents vote and how the likely voters are made up. It doesn't really matter if the GOP had a net gain of 110.000 registered voters, if on election day only 70% of registered GOP voters turn out, while 75% of Democrats do and Independents split 55-45 for Obama. In this case Obama still wins.
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Miles
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« Reply #7 on: July 17, 2012, 01:49:54 PM »

The sample is 35D 34R.

Junk.

There, I beat krazen to it.

35D, 34R is roughly the current registration in Iowa, if anyone wants to complain about the sample.

Wow, just by reading krazen's posts, I thought the GOP was far ahead in Iowa.

Actually, I just looked at the IA SoS site and its 32.4D 32R 35.6I as of June.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #8 on: July 17, 2012, 01:54:46 PM »

The sample is 35D 34R.

Junk.

There, I beat krazen to it.

35D, 34R is roughly the current registration in Iowa, if anyone wants to complain about the sample.

Wow, just by reading krazen's posts, I thought the GOP was far ahead in Iowa.

Actually, I just looked at the IA SoS site and its about 32D 32R 36I.

Yepp, but it depends what you classify as "registered voter". There are "active" and "inactive" voters. Because many Democrats who registered in 2008 didn't vote in 2010, they are now inactive. While Republicans hold about a 20.000 edge in "active voters", Democrats sneak ahead again when "inactive" voters are also added to the total. I think the inactives should be included too to get an accurate picture of the voter registration, mostly because Iowa has election-day registration. So, there's a good chance that the 2008 registered - who didn't vote in the mid-terms - will register again for the presidential election on election day.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #9 on: July 17, 2012, 02:57:13 PM »

The sample is 35D 34R.

Junk.

There, I beat krazen to it.

You forgot to correct the -5 required PPP rule. I'm sure Romney is pleased with these results!
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krazen1211
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« Reply #10 on: July 17, 2012, 03:04:48 PM »

The sample is 35D 34R.

Junk.

There, I beat krazen to it.

35D, 34R is roughly the current registration in Iowa, if anyone wants to complain about the sample.

Wow, just by reading krazen's posts, I thought the GOP was far ahead in Iowa.

Actually, I just looked at the IA SoS site and its about 32D 32R 36I.

Yepp, but it depends what you classify as "registered voter". There are "active" and "inactive" voters. Because many Democrats who registered in 2008 didn't vote in 2010, they are now inactive. While Republicans hold about a 20.000 edge in "active voters", Democrats sneak ahead again when "inactive" voters are also added to the total. I think the inactives should be included too to get an accurate picture of the voter registration, mostly because Iowa has election-day registration. So, there's a good chance that the 2008 registered - who didn't vote in the mid-terms - will register again for the presidential election on election day.

In the mid-terms Iowa's voter registration still had an edge for the Democrats. The GOP edge has nothing at all to do with the midterms. Inactive voters were marked due to not returning a postcard confirming their address or updating their address.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #11 on: July 17, 2012, 03:06:49 PM »

The sample is 35D 34R.

Junk.

There, I beat krazen to it.

35D, 34R is roughly the current registration in Iowa, if anyone wants to complain about the sample.

Wow, just by reading krazen's posts, I thought the GOP was far ahead in Iowa.

Actually, I just looked at the IA SoS site and its 32.4D 32R 35.6I as of June.

Well, yes, they are far ahead of 2008 when McCain lost Iowa, and ahead of where they were in 2004 when Bush won Iowa. Overall they are ahead by 21000 votes.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #12 on: July 17, 2012, 03:40:01 PM »
« Edited: July 17, 2012, 03:46:57 PM by True Federalist »

The sample is 35D 34R.

Junk.

There, I beat krazen to it.

You forgot to correct the -5 required PPP rule. I'm sure Romney is pleased with these results!

PPP skews D, but not that D.  Accounting for their usual skew, this poll is in line with my current prediction of Iowa as being a Tossup 40% D.
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MorningInAmerica
polijunkie3057
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« Reply #13 on: July 17, 2012, 10:29:53 PM »

The sample is 35D 34R.

Junk.

There, I beat krazen to it.

You forgot to correct the -5 required PPP rule. I'm sure Romney is pleased with these results!

PPP skews D, but not that D.  Accounting for their usual skew, this poll is in line with my current prediction of Iowa as being a Tossup 40% D.

To be precise, PPP skews 3.1 points towards the Democrats, says Nate Silver, and is the 2nd worst offender of the pollsters tested in terms of house effect. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/22/calculating-house-effects-of-polling-firms/  Also, given all the Rasmussen bashing around here, their house effect is not nearly as strong as PPPs according to this link. In fact, Rasmussen ties CNN for having the smallest house effect.
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Sbane
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« Reply #14 on: July 17, 2012, 11:20:45 PM »

Something to keep in mind is that the inaccurate PPP polls had partisan registrations that were skewed towards the Democrats. That doesn't seem to be the case here or in the national poll they just released for Dailykos.
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