An easy way to predict the election (user search)
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Author Topic: An easy way to predict the election  (Read 1969 times)
anvi
anvikshiki
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« on: July 18, 2012, 10:34:28 AM »

Obama's approvals are sitting almost exactly at where Bush '43's were when the latter won reelection.  On top of that, the eventual break of undecided voters in elections has historically been very uneven (in 2004 they broke 25-18 for Bush) and large blocks of them end up staying home on election day.

http://books.google.ca/books?id=hZ2lHGSqAIoC&pg=PA81&lpg=PA81&dq=how+did+undecided+voters+break+on+election+day+2004?&source=bl&ots=rG3AbRL4g_&sig=nL8kiSIRKCl7KWk0SykCZa2PMDM&hl=en&sa=X&ei=zdMGUJX2HYTx0gGr7eDPCA&ved=0CFYQ6AEwBg#v=onepage&q=how%20did%20undecided%20voters%20break%20on%20election%20day%202004%3F&f=false

In other words, relating approval ratings with speculation about how undecides will break is an unreliable barometer for forecasting an election.

What Romney does have going for him is that American voters put the economy number 1 on their list of voting priorities, and Romney's favorables are higher, I think, than Kerry's were in '04.  These two factors explain why the Obama camp is going negative this early, to divert attention from the economy and drive up Romney's unfavorables.  It's also why Rove is calling the Obama strategy "gutter politics"--he would know, it's right out of his playbook.
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anvi
anvikshiki
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Posts: 4,400
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« Reply #1 on: July 18, 2012, 11:00:50 AM »

It's also why Rove is calling the Obama strategy "gutter politics"--he would know, it's right out of his playbook.

I know what the MSM narrative on Rove is, but can you quote some of "his playbook" as evidence?

[modify:]  Or give some examples that can compare with what Team Obama is doing to Romney?

Sure.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A3222-2004May30.html

"Three-quarters of the ads aired by Bush's campaign have been attacks on Kerry. Bush so far has aired 49,050 negative ads in the top 100 markets, or 75 percent of his advertising. Kerry has run 13,336 negative ads -- or 27 percent of his total. The figures were compiled by The Washington Post using data from the Campaign Media Analysis Group of the top 100 U.S. markets. Both campaigns said the figures are accurate."

"From the president and Cheney down to media aides stationed in every battleground state and volunteers who dress up like Flipper the flip-flopping dolphin at rallies, the Bush campaign relentlessly portrays Kerry as elitist, untrustworthy, liberal and a flip-flopper on major issues. This campaign is persistent and methodical, and it often revs up on Monday mornings with the strategically timed release of ads or damaging attacks on Kerry, including questioning medical and service records in Vietnam and his involvement in the peace movement afterward. Often, they knock Kerry off message and force him to deflect personal questions."

Remember all those clips and surrogate jokes about Kerry on waterskis, Kerry speaking French, Kerry's Botox treatments, ect. ect.  And note how many misleading characterizations were in those ads as reported by the article. 

Driving up an opponents negatives through misleading attacks is an old political tactic, and it's certainly older than Rove.  But he did use it.  And Obama's team is certainly using it now.
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