NM: Public Policy Polling: Obama's lead down to 4-5 points

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Obama won New Mexico by 15 in 2008. Among the voters in this poll, he won by only 8. So he's really winning New Mexico by 11 or 12.

Do you not understand the concept of different turnout?

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Obama won New Mexico by 15 in 2008. Among the voters in this poll, he won by only 8. So he's really winning New Mexico by 11 or 12.

Do you not understand the concept of different turnout?

Do the math. 5 + 7 = 12.

So the answer is no, then?

Look, this is a very easy concept: Some people who voted in 2008 will not vote in 2012, and some people who didn't vote in 2008 will vote in 2012.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

I don't see any reason to think there's anything structurally wrong with the way this poll was done, but the idea that Romney is winning over a fifth of Democrats, anywhere outside Appalachia, while Obama is still ahead among independents, is ridiculous.

This is a junk poll.


That said, if you believe CNN exit polls, and perhaps you should not, President George W. Bush came close to accomplishing your 'ridiculous' scenario in 2004 when he won the state's electoral votes. As stated in that exit poll,  President George W. Bush won 15% of Democrats while losing independents.

1) Obama is not Kerry
2) Romney is not Bush
3) 2012 is not 2004