NM: Public Policy Polling: Obama's lead down to 4-5 points (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 27, 2024, 03:45:24 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2012 Elections
  2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  NM: Public Policy Polling: Obama's lead down to 4-5 points (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: NM: Public Policy Polling: Obama's lead down to 4-5 points  (Read 4650 times)
Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.
Nathan
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 34,426


« on: July 18, 2012, 03:27:02 PM »
« edited: July 18, 2012, 03:32:07 PM by Nathan »

I don't see any reason to think there's anything structurally wrong with the way this poll was done, but the idea that Romney is winning over a fifth of Democrats, anywhere outside Appalachia, while Obama is still ahead among independents, is ridiculous.

I think there are several states that are legitimately tightening or tighter than they should be (like Iowa, for example) and that Obama's pretty indisputably going to win, assuming he does, rather more narrowly this time than in 2008 if things keep going as they've been going (i.e. assuming no sudden freak bull market or dead girl/live boy in Romney's unreleased tax returns or something), but I'm not buying a ten-point swing in New Mexico.
Logged
Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.
Nathan
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 34,426


« Reply #1 on: July 18, 2012, 03:42:21 PM »

I don't see any reason to think there's anything structurally wrong with the way this poll was done, but the idea that Romney is winning over a fifth of Democrats, anywhere outside Appalachia, while Obama is still ahead among independents, is ridiculous.

This is a junk poll.


That said, if you believe CNN exit polls, and perhaps you should not, President George W. Bush came close to accomplishing your 'ridiculous' scenario in 2004 when he won the state's electoral votes. As stated in that exit poll,  President George W. Bush won 15% of Democrats while losing independents.
1) Obama is not Kerry
2) Romney is not Bush
3) 2012 is not 2004

3 factual statements of course, which is why this is a junk poll. But that does not mean such a blanket statement is wise.

Romney, if we were to campaign in New Mexico, would attempt to acquire the votes of religious New Mexico Democrats by focusing on the issue of marriage.

I'm sure he would, but I'm not sure that would be wise, since Romney's core competency is talking about the economy and he's distinctly suffered from being drawn off that message in the past. He'd run into diminishing returns pretty quickly.

Romney simply isn't the sort of candidate to appeal to New Mexico. Bush distinctly was. Bush was also considerably more likable than Romney in general, and had the good fortune of facing two Democrats considerably less likable than Obama.
Logged
Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.
Nathan
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 34,426


« Reply #2 on: July 18, 2012, 09:44:58 PM »

Obama won New Mexico by 15 in 2008. Among the voters in this poll, he won by only 8. So he's really winning New Mexico by 11 or 12.
Do you not understand the concept of different turnout?

Do the math. 5 + 7 = 12.
The 2012 electorate will certainly be more favorable to the GOP than 2008, so it'd make sense that Obama's 2008 numbers are a bit lower.

Yeah, but I'm doubting a difference of seven points.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.024 seconds with 14 queries.