NM: Public Policy Polling: Obama's lead down to 4-5 points

[krazen1211]

I don't see any reason to think there's anything structurally wrong with the way this poll was done, but the idea that Romney is winning over a fifth of Democrats, anywhere outside Appalachia, while Obama is still ahead among independents, is ridiculous.

This is a junk poll.


That said, if you believe CNN exit polls, and perhaps you should not, President George W. Bush came close to accomplishing your 'ridiculous' scenario in 2004 when he won the state's electoral votes. As stated in that exit poll,  President George W. Bush won 15% of Democrats while losing independents.

[krazen1211]

I don't see any reason to think there's anything structurally wrong with the way this poll was done, but the idea that Romney is winning over a fifth of Democrats, anywhere outside Appalachia, while Obama is still ahead among independents, is ridiculous.

This is a junk poll.


That said, if you believe CNN exit polls, and perhaps you should not, President George W. Bush came close to accomplishing your 'ridiculous' scenario in 2004 when he won the state's electoral votes. As stated in that exit poll,  President George W. Bush won 15% of Democrats while losing independents.

1) Obama is not Kerry
2) Romney is not Bush
3) 2012 is not 2004

3 factual statements of course, which is why this is a junk poll. But that does not mean such a blanket statement is wise.

Romney, if we were to campaign in New Mexico, would attempt to acquire the votes of religious New Mexico Democrats by focusing on the issue of marriage.