MT-2014: Baucus not electorally dead!?
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  MT-2014: Baucus not electorally dead!?
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Author Topic: MT-2014: Baucus not electorally dead!?  (Read 599 times)
Miles
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« on: September 13, 2012, 03:17:55 PM »

From PPP.

Baucus (D)- 48%
Generic R- 42%
Not sure- 10%

Schweitzer (D)- 50%
Generic R- 42%
Not sure- 8%

Its hard to see Schweitzer only performing 2 points bette. Baucus has only slightly negative approval numbers (45/47) while Schweitzer is very popular (56/35).

PPP also did a D primary trial, though the sub-sample is only about 200:

Baucus- 36%
Schweitzer- 40%
Not sure- 24%
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1 on: September 13, 2012, 04:22:49 PM »

If Rehberg defeats Tester, who else does the MT GOP have?
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mondale84
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« Reply #2 on: September 13, 2012, 04:56:28 PM »

I always thought that the much talked about electoral death of Max Baucus was premature.
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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
Just Passion Through
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« Reply #3 on: September 13, 2012, 07:26:26 PM »

Good to see, but for someone who's been in the Senate for thirty-four years, trailing a primary opponent by four points isn't exactly a good thing.  I don't expect Schweitzer to challenge him if he runs again, though.
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Badger
badger
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« Reply #4 on: September 16, 2012, 06:30:58 PM »

The last two posts share a cookie for the correct answer(s).
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Negusa Nagast 🚀
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« Reply #5 on: September 16, 2012, 06:37:25 PM »

I always thought that the much talked about electoral death of Max Baucus was premature.

Declaring whether a candidate is electorally dead or thriving before the last month or so of an election is premature. McCaskill is Example A.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #6 on: September 16, 2012, 07:24:26 PM »

If Rehberg defeats Tester, who else does the MT GOP have?

Ex-Governor Marc Racicot, but he'll be 66, and I don't see why he'd challenge Baucus, if he passed on taking on Tester this year. If Steve Daines is elected, he could run, but he may end up like a weak Berg-style candidate. He'll probably wait several terms in the House before he runs for anything else.

For whatever reason, the Montana GOP bench doesn't seem too deep right now.
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Holmes
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« Reply #7 on: September 17, 2012, 08:12:03 AM »

These are not necessarily good numbers for Baucus. I'm expecting him to retire.
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