WA-SurveyUSA: McKenna+1

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Yeah, but this year is different.  They have an unpopular outgoing Democrat governor, a Democrat president running for reelection, and the fact that Dems have controlled the governor's office there for 28 years.  That alone hurts their chances of holding on.  McKenna's lead may have dropped recently, but I think that it's temporary and he will ultimately win it all.

Do voters tend to throw out the incumbent party if they've been in control a long time? Utah and South Dakota seem to say no.