How would the non-contenders be doing against Obama right about now?

[Joe Biden 2020]

Such as Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee, Donald Trump, and others you might think of.

Sarah Palin - She would have energized the base, but probably send all independents scrambling for shelter under Obama's canopy.

Donald Trump - 1984, anyone?  With Trump being Trumped like Mondale?

Mike Huckabee - This is probably the best bet of any of the contenders.  He likely would have kept the base and probably kept a bunch of indy's on his side, as well.  I could see him in a dead heat or slightly ahead at this point in the game, probably 2-5 points better than Romney.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

I think Huckabee would be ahead by about a point or two right now, with one poll stating Obama ahead, and another with Huckabee ahead. They'd be in a literal dead heat. But he'd be doing about 3 points better than Romney right now.

Obama-236
Huckabee-206

Rudy Giuliani, if he could secure the right, would probably have a nice lead among independent voters.

Obama-227
Giuliani-191

Sarah Palin would be down about 10 points right now, and looking at the same kinda defeat McCain suffered.

Obama-347
Palin-155

[pbrower2a]

Sarah Palin would be losing in the popular vote about as badly as Barry Goldwater, if for a very different reason. When she was running for President she was doing badly enough in Obama states to have no chance -- but in any state with a large number of non-native speakers of English she did catastrophically.

Anyone who talks with non-native speakers of English, whether those people were raised learning German or Vietnamese, is well advised to stay close to the formal register -- to not use slang or any non-standard English irrespective of how proficient the other speaker is. She violates that rule. In 2010 when pollsters were contrasting her with someone like Mike Huckabee (who gets his point across very clearly) she did about as well in a state like New Hampshire as did Mike Huckabee, but in New Mexico (which has many people who first learned Spanish) she did far worse than did Huckabee. She is not a religious, racial, or ethnic bigot; it's not that she insulted the Catholic Church. Her atrocious diction offends people who expect better English by people who have no excuse.

She would have the same problem with Cuban-Americans in Florida; she could conceivably lose Florida by a bigger margin than by which she would lose Minnesota. (She would lose Minnesota). She would lose the Old Order Amish (German-speaking) vote in Indiana and Missouri and lose both states. She would lose the Cajun vote in Louisiana... and Louisiana. She would lose Arizona... and Texas.

She would lose California about 75-25, but on Election Night President Obama would be shown to have won 270 electoral votes as Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, and Missouri are called for President Obama. 

She would win those Southern, Western, and Plains states with small numbers of non-native speakers of English. But that is it.   

Mike Huckabee would get results similar to those of McCain in 2008, perhaps trading Indiana for Missouri or Arizona.





 

[California8429]

Palin

Huckabee

Maybe a little too nice for Huckabee, but he'd be playing hardball all over the board.