Civitas Poll of NC (LVs), Romney leads 49-48%

[MorningInAmerica]

http://www.nccivitas.org/2012/civitas-poll-obama-negatives-hit-50-percent-romney-maintains-lead-in-north-carolina/

Romney leads 49-48%.

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But....but....BAIN!?

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

What is this pollster's track record?

[ajc0918]

North Carolina is actually being kinder to Obama than I expected.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

http://www.nccivitas.org/2012/civitas-poll-obama-negatives-hit-50-percent-romney-maintains-lead-in-north-carolina/

Romney leads 49-48%.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

.”

But....but....BAIN!?

With about a 3 point margin of error, wouldn't that 2 point increase kinda count as statistically insignificant?

For one, this is a Republican pollster. 2 Romney clinched the nomination and Reps rallied behind him. And also, Obama embraced gay marriage, which is why a lot of us have written off NC as a swing state.

[Minnesota Mike]

I know most pundits have North Carolina as lean Romney but the vast majority of the polling has the race very tight. I rate it a tossup.

[Comrade Funk]

Hmm...maybe NC is closer than I originally thought.

[Miles]

What is this pollster's track record?

Its skewed to the right in past cycles, but its polling in recent months has been surprisingly realistic.

[Sbane]

Looks like Romney has to spend money here.

[MorningInAmerica]

Looks like Romney has to spend money here.

Having to spend money to win a state won by your opponent last time. Imagine.

[Alcon]

Looks like Romney has to spend money here.

Having to spend money to win a state won by your opponent last time. Imagine.

It's not a very cheap place to advertise (quite a few media markets), and this was an Obama +0% state in a Obama +7% election.  The chance NC would be a tipping-point state is virtually nil.  However, there's a resources issue here.  Look at Indiana in 2008.  Obama's performance there was clearly artificially inflated by having a strong airwave advantage.  By late October, McCain (who was screwed, but still) found himself having to spend resources on a state he never should have had to worry about.  There were quite a few of these states, and frankly, one could argue that Virginia would have been a similar state even in an even contest: not a state that McCain wanted to end up defending as a tipping-point state.

Long story short: Even if Obama won it in 2008, the fact that North Carolina isn't a moot point now (like Indiana seems to be) is a net-negative for Romney.  Of course, it's a minor one.  The whole state-handicapping thing is a lot of fun, but it's rarely how the election is actually won.

[Miles]

Entered.

[NVGonzalez]

So much for likely voters favoring Romney.

[Tender Branson]

What is this pollster's track record?

SurveyUSA does the polls for Civitas now, so ... very good.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

what bane did to Gotham city..Romney will do to america:p

[Alcon]

So much for likely voters favoring Romney.

There's no indication they don't, but it's usually like 3 points...so these things vary with MoE.

[sg0508]

This state (and I know it's a summer poll) shows you how screwed Romney is.  A state that Obama carried last time due to a terrible economy and insane turnout (that hadn't voted democratic since '76) and there's no clear lead? Romney should be blowing him away here by at least 5 points if not more.

[pbrower2a]

Looks like Romney has to spend money here.

Having to spend money to win a state won by your opponent last time. Imagine.

...having to spend big money in a state that your opponent would have won without the last time. That is bad. If Mitt Romney has to spend big money in Arizona, Georgia, and Missouri then he is in electoral distress.

Note that this is a "likely voters" poll that well describes the results of a midterm election but rarely the Presidential election. Question: how will the youngest and newest voters  to be registered in September and October vote? In 2008 they went for Barack Obama, and youth born from 1991 to 1994 show few signs of being much different from the young voters of 1987 to 1990.

At this stage this is superficial good news for Mitt Romney that belies an electoral calamity in the making.

[Wisconsin+17]

Romney's streak of 6 days without a winning poll is reset, again, by North Carolina.