West Virginia Senate Election, 2010

[Frodo]

Jesse Johnson looks like the only non-conservative candidate in this lineup. 

[Frodo]

Manchin (normal)

Manchin, reluctantly.

So you would still support Manchin even if he is likely to switch parties the minute it looks as if the Republicans could take over the Senate? 

[Frodo]

In unlikely event of the race being close, Manchin. I'm not a fan of him, but demonizing him by many Democrats is kind of annoying. It's almost always better to have a Blue Dog Democrat than Mr. Generic Republican, especially as dumb as Raese.

Otherwise, I'd vote for Johnson.

Joe Manchin is likely to switch parties in the event Republicans take over the Senate, but regardless of whether he is a Democrat or becomes a Republican, of the choices presented he is the best option West Virginia has.  And he would make a far better Republican than Raese.

[Frodo]

In unlikely event of the race being close, Manchin. I'm not a fan of him, but demonizing him by many Democrats is kind of annoying. It's almost always better to have a Blue Dog Democrat than Mr. Generic Republican, especially as dumb as Raese.

Otherwise, I'd vote for Johnson.

Joe Manchin is likely to switch parties in the event Republicans take over the Senate

I'm not so sure about this. West Virginia really do like conservative Democrats. Why would Manchin join pretty pathetic thing statewide WV GOP is?

He wouldn't be the first pioneering southern Democrat to switch parties (see Thurmond, Strom), and considering everything he has said and done recently (and the fact that certain high-profile Republicans are supporting him), all the evidence is pointing in the direction of an opportunistic party switch.  That isn't to rule out Manchin becoming an independent, though...