I'd be shocked if the state ends within 7-8 points this year. It will almost certainly swing back to the R column, which is likely why no one is polling it.
Its strange though that a state can swing 20 points between elections, and then swing back by almost the same amount the next. I'm sure some of the swing was because of the hopey-changey stuff, but equally there are surely some underlying demographic changes meaning Indiana will stay close regardless
Indiana has long been the Republican anomaly in Presidential elections. It is more rural than neighbors and near-neighbors Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin. It has generally low voter turnout (the state shuts down its voting booths at 6 PM)... but it can vote for Democrats for the Senate and the Governorship. In the 111th Congress it had a 5-4 split in favor of Democrats in the House delegation.
The state is difficult to campaign in from afar; such usually favors the Republican nominee for President. By campaigning from Chicago, President Obama turned that upside-down. The bad economy hurt Republicans due to the RV industry sensitive to the general economy, gas prices, and financing. Two states bordering Indiana (Michigan and Ohio) were swing states throughout most of 2008. To reach some parts of Michigan and Ohio the Obama campaign had to buy ads in South Bend and Fort Wayne. As Michigan became a sure thing the ads stayed on in South Bend... and voters in eastern Indiana were still getting ads from Cincinnati, Dayton, and Fort Wayne. As Michigan became a sure thing the Obama campaign could shift advertising to Indianapolis from Grand Rapids, Lansing, Flint, and Detroit.
