NC redistricting revisited

[krazen1211]

If I hadn't happened to follow politics for most of life, with its familiarities with what places vote what way, and, if I were asked to redistrict Texas, I would try to draw as many completely rural districts as practical, possibly like the example above.

Very good; as long as you're consistent. That interestingly puts you at odds with your party's actions in TX; Republicans diluted the influence of rural voters in those such districts.

That is a very good point Miles.

The opposite is true on other parts of the state. By drawing 4 bizarre baconstrips from Webb, Hidalgo, and Cameron Counties (total population of roughly 2 congressional districts), some plaintiffs in recent redistricting legalese sought to dilute the influence of rural voters in those such districts.

[krazen1211]

Mr. Miles's NC-05 looks like a lean R district. Those rural counties look far less likely to support a D congressman than some of the other rural counties in NC, and in that type of tug of war district the GOP has an edge. It is still a very skillful gerrymander.

[krazen1211]

It is truly a shame that it is rather difficult to draw an effective clean GOP map. I suppose something could be done from that to mesh 4 and 13 into 1 Dem superfortress while at the same time cracking Greensboro in a manner that is not as ugly as the official map.


Probably it has to do with the size of the various cities, and the spread nature of the black population. Eventually I suspect that will change and CD-1 will become a far more urban district.

[krazen1211]

It is truly a shame that it is rather difficult to draw an effective clean GOP map. I suppose something could be done from that to mesh 4 and 13 into 1 Dem superfortress while at the same time cracking Greensboro in a manner that is not as ugly as the official map.


Probably it has to do with the size of the various cities, and the spread nature of the black population. Eventually I suspect that will change and CD-1 will become a far more urban district.

NC seems to be naturally favorable to the Ds, like Florida and Illinois are for the Rs.

I'll work on a clean GOP map next...I may need your input

Well, that is mainly due to the fact that while a 50/50 district in Virginia is at the minimum lean GOP, that is not so in North Carolina.

This is where I get stuck. Out east you have 1 black and 1 white district.




The Triad districts work nicely enough. The problem is there is no place to go with the 8th and 7th. The 7th ends up being an extremely inefficient Dem vote sink and you are forced to yield a 4th district. Fundamentally there seems to be no way to crack Fayetteville, and if you turn it into a 60% vote sink, you run into problems with cracking Greensboro.

[krazen1211]

I will use a county bridge snake courtesy of Muon2. This will properly vote sink the 7th district while not causing excessive problems with the 6th, with the cost of making the 8th district a very poorly drawn district (but a GOP hold).




Mathematically there are enough blacks left to make 1 district, although truthfully given that North Carolina Democrats have shown themselves to be happy with mid 40s vap perhaps that would be sufficient to avoid county butchery. Section 5 is perhaps not long for this world anyway.

[krazen1211]

I will use a county bridge snake courtesy of Muon2. This will properly vote sink the 7th district while not causing excessive problems with the 6th, with the cost of making the 8th district a very poorly drawn district (but a GOP hold).




Mathematically there are enough blacks left to make 1 district, although truthfully given that North Carolina Democrats have shown themselves to be happy with mid 40s vap perhaps that would be sufficient to avoid county butchery. Section 5 is perhaps not long for this world anyway.

Section 5 may not be long for the world, but section 2 still applies. The blacks don't complain about a 45% BVAP in a Dem map, but they sue if it is in a map to favor the GOP.

That's true. And in the end easily corrected-just not with country integrity goals. Tentacles and snakes seem to require other tentacles and snakes and then you get tri-split counties all over the place. If one is going to siphon Durham with the 1st district, one might as well run the 4th to Greensboro; of course, High Point ends up being on the western edge of Guilford rather than east. Real pain in the neck.

Mecklenberg and Wake Counties are just all wrong. Lousy population figures and lousy layout. In Georgia one can plop a nice 80% circle or two in Dekalb County and a 60% white district in South Georgia can carry the day. Perhaps in a decade that can be done in Mecklenberg/East North Carolina.

[krazen1211]

Changes from my last version:

-The McCain % in 2 and 3 is up slightly; Democrats will be hard-pressed to win 2, but they could still potentially pick up 3 when Jones retires. 3 becomes somewhat more compact.

-The 8th is a point or so more R...its now even worse for Kissell than the one in the actual Republican map.

- The 9th becomes more Charlotte-centric and is the only district to border the 12th.

Very effective milesmander.

What is interesting is that yielding a 4th district doesn't really improve the GOP's changes of winning the remaining 9 in any material fashion compared to the legislative map. It just puts extra Republicans in 8, 9, 5, 10.