Will Democrats gain 25 seats gross in the House?

[Torie]

The have about a 5% chance of doing so. Much more likely is a zero to 5 seat gain. That to me is about the top of the bell curve of possible outcomes at the moment. A 25 seat gain is about two standard deviations out. And the bell curve is not normally shaped. It drops from its top more steeply than normal. Gerrymanders here, there and everywhere, tend to not be friendly to normalcy when it comes to bell curve shapes. Who knew?