Swing

[solarstorm]

Are there even any states that are gonna swing towards the blue (= Democratic) column?

[Dereich]

First clarify: Do you mean Atlas blue (REP) or rest-of-America blue (DEM)?

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

First clarify: Do you mean Atlas blue (REP) or rest-of-America blue (DEM)?

Based on his other posts, he means rest-of-America.

To answer the question: it seems unlikely but not impossible. I'd watch Alaska, Arizona, and Minnesota for a swing toward the Democrats.

[zorkpolitics]

No, Obama will lose several states he won in 2008: IN, NC, FL and possibly OH, IA, VA, and CO.  But he will not win any of the states he lost.

[Penelope]

Even Carter managed to swing Vermont a bit towards the Democrats in 1980.

So unless Romney is going to win with 65%+ of the popular vote and 535 or more electoral votes then I'd say it's pretty likely that a few states will swing more towards Obama this time around. Maybe the Clinton states that swung so far from the Democrats in 2008 will be a few percentage points friendly to Obama. Whether he will win any states he didn't win in 2008 remains to be seen.

It's certainly possible, AZ and MO could probably be picked off, and maybe if Romney is having a particularly bad day, SC and GA.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Swing this year? Probably a couple of the Appalachian states get small swings (AR, WV, TN), though not nearly enough to win. Minnesota is another possibility, as is Arizona.

[Lief 🗽]

I'd be surprised if Romney wins Arizona by the 9 points McCain did. Obama should at the very least get a point or two swing there.

[You kip if you want to...]

Texas, Arizona, Alaska, Nevada, Kansas, Hawaii, Georgia and South Carolina.

There's some that I could imagine.

[stegosaurus]

Romney will not win Texas by 12 points like McCain did, you can take that to the bank. 8-9% win for Romney, at best. 5-6% if things go badly.