MI: Public Policy Polling: Obama up double-digits

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So the people who were disputing the NBC/WSJ poll yesterday because it had a D+11 sample were wrong, because they weren't basing their concerns on factual registration counts (which, obviously, do not exist at the national level)?

Not wrong, no. They were merely looking at the registration counts of the states that do have it, and what historical partisan identification nationwide has been for decades.

You spin well but you said something dumb and you should accept it and move on. When talking about national registration numbers the states are irrelevant unless you use registration statistics from all 50 to get at a national number. That is impossible of course since not all states have partisan registration. And of course looking at historical registration means looking at polls to figure out registration, something you claim was not being done.

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So the people who were disputing the NBC/WSJ poll yesterday because it had a D+11 sample were wrong, because they weren't basing their concerns on factual registration counts (which, obviously, do not exist at the national level)?

Not wrong, no. They were merely looking at the registration counts of the states that do have it, and what historical partisan identification nationwide has been for decades.

Where are they getting their numbers of historical partisan identification nationwide, if not from things like exit polls?
And how are they estimating partisan id in states like Michigan that don't have partisan registration? Because it's pretty difficult to get an accurate sum when some of the numbers are complete unknowns.

I presume they use gallup surveys and other national surveys of the public that have historically been shown to be consistent and reliable, as opposed to, say, dubious exit polling that often times is proven wrong within minutes.



Whether you choose to believe PPP or 7 other pollsters is up to you. Certainly nobody can change your mind.

I'm just curious to know how Gallup's partisan ID numbers have been proven reliable, when there's nothing to confirm them against.

Because Krazy needs to win this argument.

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I'm just curious to know how Gallup's partisan ID numbers have been proven reliable, when there's nothing to confirm them against.

Well, aside from the fact that they tend to be confirmed by others who do the same exercise, they match up with actual electoral results. Namely, when gallup polls shifted by 5 points from the Republican party between 2004 and 2008, the GOP, well, lost roughly 5 points in Presidential and downballot races.

Certainly consistency matters, and PPP's bizarre trend of continuously releasing outlier polls (remember Colorado +14) is, well, their business I suppose. 

We weren't talking about electoral results but rather registration numbers. Even if you think Gallup is more accurate than exit polling, it's still a poll. And it doesn't capture the electorate that went to the polls like exit polling does. And the main point is that most of the republicans who complain about partisan registration use exit polling to compare rather than Gallup or the states own registration numbers.