MI: Public Policy Polling: Obama up double-digits

[MorningInAmerica]

Leave it to PPP to give Obama his biggest lead of any pollster in Michigan for the last 6 months.

[MorningInAmerica]

You have to go all the way back to February to find a poll that comes even close to PPPs results.

[MorningInAmerica]

Nate Silver of the NYTimes use to be one of Public Policy Polling's biggest cheerleaders. He's also the guy that ranks the pollsters. He didn't sound like a cheerleader after PPPs Michigan poll release this afternoon: https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/status/228153749250662400

[MorningInAmerica]

Remember, he crushed McCain here by 17, and that was not just an anomaly.  Northern suburbs trended hard towards Obama across the Midwest. 

In a historical sense, it WAS just an anomaly. Republicans lost Michigan 51-48 in the 2004 Presidential election, and 51-46 in the 2000 election. So based on past trends, it would be the 17 pt victory in 2008 that is the anomaly.

[MorningInAmerica]

Remember, he crushed McCain here by 17, and that was not just an anomaly.  Northern suburbs trended hard towards Obama across the Midwest.  

In a historical sense, it WAS just an anomaly. Republicans lost Michigan 51-48 in the 2004 Presidential election, and 51-46 in the 2000 election. So based on past trends, it would be the 17 pt victory in 2008 that is the anomaly.

You're not getting the point.  2008 was THE year for northern suburbs to finally shift big time towards the Democrats after years and years of just trending in that direction.  Look at SE Pennsylvania, NW Ohio, most of Wisconsin, Northern VA... these areas did not just swing that away as a result of a big Democratic victory.  They have been trending Dem for a long time and in 2008 they went from just trending that way to the point where they are actually important bases of support for the Democratic party.  For states like Michigan to become competitive for the GOP, those areas would not only have to return to 90s voting patterns... but actually become even more GOP friendly then they were before.  With the Republican Party taking a hard right turn and more and more influx from the cities they surround, do you really think that is likely to happen in a race that is showing to be, at the very best for Obama a 2008 repeat, and at worst a tie ball game?  

These types of trends that have been holding true for decades don't just completely reverse over the course of 4 years without a massive ideological shift in the parties, which has not happened.  

If you would like to make the argument that Romney is pulling Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, etc close by racking up votes in rural areas, fine... if you also want to assume that A. Romney is a better candidate for rural voters than McCain, and B. there are thousands upon thousands of votes out there for Romney to pick up, considering Obama just KILLED it in rural America in 2008.  Sorry, I don't buy either.  

I'm sorry if that means in the overall big picture it's very, very difficult for a Republican to get to 270, but it's not like that scenario has never been played out before.  

I'm getting your point, it's just that that's not what you originally said. What you originally said was "Remember, he crushed McCain here by 17, and that was not just an anomaly." It's a simple fact that, looking at recent electoral history, the 17 point victory in Michigan WAS an anomaly.