My guess. Carter loses MN, RI, and MD thanks to some OTL Anderson voters switching over. I left him with WV because, even though he took it with >40% margins, if you add up Reagan's and Anderson's totals, they're just shy of taking the state. As well, I gave Carter HI because I think a number of Anderson voters there would have been much more likely to go Carter than Reagan anyway. However, there's the chance that some Anderson voters in MN, RI, and MD would've stuck with Carter in this scenario as well. It's tricky given we son't know how much of Anderson's support was made up of otherwise loyal liberal Republicans, disaffected liberal Democrats, independents, and so on.
Also, and I'm not saying this is likely, but if Reagan goes a bit to the left, it's possible that Carter could pick up strength in the South. After all, a number of Southern states only went to Reagan with >40% margins.
