Georgia SUSA: Romney 50 Obama 42 (user search)
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  Georgia SUSA: Romney 50 Obama 42 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Georgia SUSA: Romney 50 Obama 42  (Read 1852 times)
True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« on: July 30, 2012, 09:57:42 PM »

Not yet up on SUSA's site, so I won't enter it yet since I don't know how stable the given link will be.  50-42 now translates to 54-45 once the other and undecided voters swing to the major parties and/or dropout.  Georgia is still in Lean R territory percentage-wise, but unless there is unexpected major national shift to Obama, it's safe R.  At best Obama might be able to narrow the gap to 5 or so.  He might still make a few ad buys in Augusta and Savannah if he thinks he can help Barrow keep his House seat, but that's about it.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #1 on: July 30, 2012, 11:41:09 PM »

If FEMA had sent New Orleans African-Americans to Atlanta instead of Houston/Dallas than Georgia would be polling pretty much as a swing state.

Quite a few Katrina refugees were sent east.  We even had some get as far as South Carolina.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #2 on: July 31, 2012, 11:22:57 PM »

Related but unrelated:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=3c299ac8-437b-4ecc-9f0e-2d2ba6a36e92

Indiana SUSA Poll: 8/16-8/18/2008
645 LV

McCain 50
Obama 44

Let's also look at SUSA's polling record in GA in 2008:

SurveyUSA   10/30 - 11/2   683 LV   3.8   52   45   McCain +7
SurveyUSA   10/11 - 10/12   547 LV   4.3   51   43   McCain +8
SurveyUSA   9/28 - 9/29   677 LV   3.8   52   44   McCain +8
SurveyUSA   9/14 - 9/16   684 LV   3.8   57   41   McCain +16

Your point being?  The final poll was within the MoE for the actual result and the +16 poll was before McCain shot himself in the foot by ineffectually suspending his campaign for the financial crisis, while the other three were after.

If McCain hadn't botched his crisis response the election would have been closer, with Virginia being a tossup and Obama getting under 300 EV, tho still the White House.



To be fair, I think that's why McCain tried to do something dramatic.  If he had stuck to campaigning, he would have lost, just not as badly.  If his stunt had actually worked, he would have won.
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