Georgia SUSA: Romney 50 Obama 42 (user search)
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  Georgia SUSA: Romney 50 Obama 42 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Georgia SUSA: Romney 50 Obama 42  (Read 1865 times)
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,088
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« on: July 31, 2012, 07:11:44 PM »
« edited: July 31, 2012, 07:21:24 PM by IDS Legislator Griffin »

In 2008, I said Indiana would be the sleeper state. I was right.

I'm very impressed.  Link?

The search feature for this site is broken, so I can't find it.

Related but unrelated:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=3c299ac8-437b-4ecc-9f0e-2d2ba6a36e92

Indiana SUSA Poll: 8/16-8/18/2008
645 LV

McCain 50
Obama 44

Let's also look at SUSA's polling record in GA in 2008:

SurveyUSA   10/30 - 11/2   683 LV   3.8   52   45   McCain +7
SurveyUSA   10/11 - 10/12   547 LV   4.3   51   43   McCain +8
SurveyUSA   9/28 - 9/29   677 LV   3.8   52   44   McCain +8
SurveyUSA   9/14 - 9/16   684 LV   3.8   57   41   McCain +16
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,088
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #1 on: August 01, 2012, 01:45:56 AM »


Your point being?  The final poll was within the MoE for the actual result and the +16 poll was before McCain shot himself in the foot by ineffectually suspending his campaign for the financial crisis, while the other three were after.

If McCain hadn't botched his crisis response the election would have been closer, with Virginia being a tossup and Obama getting under 300 EV, tho still the White House.



To be fair, I think that's why McCain tried to do something dramatic.  If he had stuck to campaigning, he would have lost, just not as badly.  If his stunt had actually worked, he would have won.

The first comparison is to show that Obama was down in Indiana's 2008 SUSA poll by a similar amount as Obama is in SUSA's 2012 GA poll today. Yes, the last three polls from SUSA in 2008 were within the MOE, but all had McCain over-performing his end result. This tends to make me think that it's possible the race is somewhat closer than what the current poll shows, but not by any substantial amount. And I'm pretty sure that McCain's campaign suspension didn't lead to that large of a voter shift in Georgia.
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