Australian Capital Territory Election Thread

[Frodo]

The election there is only a week away, folks:

Predictions for the Legislative Assembly election: Labor and Libs will tie with seven apiece and Greens three, writes Malcolm Mackerras.

[RogueBeaver]

So Lab-Green coalition.

[DC Al Fine]

Looks like it.

[Platypus]

As much as I'm not a huge fan of Katy Gallagher, by and large the rest of the ACT ALP is exceptionally strong.

Disclaimer: I used to live with the son of one Labor MLA and a staffer at another is a close friend.

The Liberals are relatively alright, but the Greens aren't. The independents are pretty universally loco.

[Platypus]

Latest (only?) polls (with a high MOE, to be fair) show:

ALP minimum 7, maximum 10
Liberal minimum 5, maximum 7
Green minimum 1, maximum 4

I'm thinking Labor will get the outright majority of 9, with 6 liberals and 2 greens.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The polls have the Liberals at a record low primary in my electorate of Molongolo - 30%

The expectations are things stay exactly as they are.

[Platypus]

I'd expect Labor to gain a seat off the Greens, actually, maybe even two, depending on how Brindabella goes.

Ginninderra
ALP 2/3
Liberals 2
Greens 0/1

Probably Greens (Hunter) for the fifth seat, but ALP a good chance.

Molonglo
ALP 3/4
Liberals 2/3
Greens 1/2

Seventh seat is approximately a three way tie, and I have no idea how it will go, although I'd expect in the end that the Greens vote will shrink from last time, probably towards the ALP, but the effect of this could actually benefit the Liberals.

Brindabella
ALP 2/3
Liberals 2
Greens 0/1

Joy Burch should get a very strong personal vote, and I wouldn't be shocked if the ALP can steal the fifth seat off the Greens.

----

I'm basing this a little bit off the poll, but primarily off facebook. There seems to be significantly less enthusiasm for the Greens this time around than last time. Maybe because my friends are ageing, but probably because people didn't particularly like the Greens in government, so to speak. I also think people like Gallagher (which to me seems strange, I can't stand her) quite a bit and that the ALP will have quite a few strong personal votes.

[Platypus]

Early figures, labor stable, greens down, libs up but won't get a majority.

[Platypus]

Looks like Liberals 8, Labor 7, Greens 2, but could be 7/7/3.

[Platypus]

Things have basically stabilesd now, with Labor highly unlikely to lose or gain a seat, libs likely to gain one, greens likely to lose one, with the fifth seat in ginninderra likely greens possibly independent, and the third seat in Brindabella between the libs and greens, which surprises me, I'd expected labor and greens.

Ginninderra
Labor 2
Liberal 2
Greens 0/1
Motorists 0/1

Molonglo
Labor 3
Liberal 3
Greens 1

Brindabella
Labor 2
Liberal 2/3
Greens 0/1

[Platypus]

Molonglo booths coming through now, with my old stomping ground, the inner north, being very ALP-friendly.

Basically, looks like Labor will win the most votes, with a 1-2% swing in their favour, libs will win the most seats with a 3-5% swing in their favour, and the greens have a significant swing against them and will lose at least one, possibly three seats.

[Platypus]

So... Libs won the most seats, Labor won the most votes, Liberals won the best swing (although labor also had a swing towards them). It makes for a difficult moral situation. The ideological left has won the election both in total votes and seats, but the Liberals are the largest party and had the biggest improvement.

I think the moral solution would be for the voters wishes to be respected, that both labor and the liberals should form government. The greens are clearly the loser in every way, yet they get to determine who governs.

From a purely moral standpoint, I think the options go like this:

1. ALP/Liberal government
The winners of this election.
2. ALP/Greens
Ideological left vs ideological right.
3. Liberals/Greens
Nobody's ideal and unlikely to be the will of any voters.

That doesn't mean option three is immoral, and it is perfectly acceptable and may even be a good option for Canberra.

[Frodo]

So... Libs won the most seats, Labor won the most votes, Liberals won the best swing (although labor also had a swing towards them). It makes for a difficult moral situation. The ideological left has won the election both in total votes and seats, but the Liberals are the largest party and had the biggest improvement.

I think the moral solution would be for the voters wishes to be respected, that both labor and the liberals should form government. The greens are clearly the loser in every way, yet they get to determine who governs.

From a purely moral standpoint, I think the options go like this:

1. ALP/Liberal government
The winners of this election.
2. ALP/Greens
Ideological left vs ideological right.
3. Liberals/Greens
Nobody's ideal and unlikely to be the will of any voters.

That doesn't mean option three is immoral, and it is perfectly acceptable and may even be a good option for Canberra.

Would it be a blessing in disguise for the Liberals if Labor and the Greens form a government to their exclusion, with the Liberals in opposition?  

[Platypus]

I'd say there's a 90% chance it'll be ALP with greens backing for supply, ie, the status quo. I don't think the Greens are in the position to demand or expect ministries.

I can't think of there every having been a grand coalition in any jurisdiction in Australia, not a Liberals-Green agreement, and I don't think either would work. Certainly historically, the Liberals exist with the sole unifying ideology being anti-labor and more broadly anti-socialism.It would be actively impossible for them to be in a coalition with the ALP, I would think. What may be a possibility, although it is highly unlikely (and won't actually happen but is interesting to think about) is   the ALP guaranteeing supply to a minority Liberal government.

The problem with this result is that there are two clear winners, and one clear loser, but the loser gets to determine who forms government, and is likely to support the side that is weaker in the legislative assembly, despite being stronger in total votes.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes, it's an interesting one from a democratic point of view.

[Platypus]

Just to make things more interesting, it looks like Labor's Yvette Berry may take the fifth Ginninderra seat, based on a strong personal vote, which for whatever reason Green's leader Meredith Hunter lacked.

So, 8-8-1, and Rattenbury probably compelled to step down from the speakership, meaning that the floor totals will be Liberal 8-Labor 7-Greens 1 If the ALP form the government and have to provide the speaker.

[morgieb]

Greens got hammered. Ouch.

[Platypus]

...and yet they're still the Kingmakers. Which is perfectly democratic, but highly unfortunate.

[You kip if you want to...]

...and yet they're still the Kingmakers. Which is perfectly democratic, but highly unfortunate.

Oh the Westminster system.

[Zanas]

To be fair, this could have happened in other voting systems as well.

[Frodo]

So has the lone Green decided yet which party he'd rather have leading the ACT Assembly?  I haven't heard anything on this since the election.   

[Smid]

To be fair, this could have happened in other voting systems as well.

To be fair, this did happen under another voting system (proportional representation) - there are three electorates, each are multi-member. Two elect 5 representatives, the other elects 7. The sole Green was elected in the electorate with 7 representatives, where the quota is (obviously) lower.

[Platypus]

So has the lone Green decided yet which party he'd rather have leading the ACT Assembly?  I haven't heard anything on this since the election.   

Labor, with a 100-point agreement and a ministry.

[Frodo]

So has the lone Green decided yet which party he'd rather have leading the ACT Assembly?  I haven't heard anything on this since the election.    

Labor, with a 100-point agreement and a ministry.

Found the article confirming it.

That is pretty much what I thought he'd do.  It is a more natural alliance than with the Liberals.