AZ: PPP - Romney up 11

[krazen1211]

http://www.lcv.org/elections/research/arizona-senate-poll.pdf

Romney 52
Obama 41


Romney is doing even better than McCain. This might just be the trick to breaking the Colleen Mathis gerrymander of the 9th district.

[MorningInAmerica]

It's PPP FWIW, but 11 points is the biggest lead they've given Romney in Arizona this cycle.

[mondale84]

It's PPP FWIW, but 11 points is the biggest lead they've given Romney in Arizona this cycle.

Yeah PPP is a troll/hack organization...tell that to David Dewhurst!

[5280]

I would say AZ is solid Romney now.

[MorningInAmerica]

It's PPP FWIW, but 11 points is the biggest lead they've given Romney in Arizona this cycle.

Yeah PPP is a troll/hack organization...tell that to David Dewhurst!

PPP predicted 52-42 in Tx runoff. Result was 57-43%. Their Cruz number was off by 5, and Dewhurst number off 1. They and others have done better.

[mondale84]

It's PPP FWIW, but 11 points is the biggest lead they've given Romney in Arizona this cycle.

Yeah PPP is a troll/hack organization...tell that to David Dewhurst!

PPP predicted 52-42 in Tx runoff. Result was 57-43%. Their Cruz number was off by 5, and Dewhurst number off 1. They and others have done better.

They're called undecided voters deciding at the last minute. Also, it was a RUNOFF.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Race:
                        T        H     W       O
Barack Obama 41% 52% 39% 34%
Mitt Romney 52% 42% 54% 50%
Undecided


That is what? A 16% jump amongst AZ hispanics for Romney? Is the Supreme Court Rulling helping Mittens here?

[MorningInAmerica]

It's PPP FWIW, but 11 points is the biggest lead they've given Romney in Arizona this cycle.

Yeah PPP is a troll/hack organization...tell that to David Dewhurst!

PPP predicted 52-42 in Tx runoff. Result was 57-43%. Their Cruz number was off by 5, and Dewhurst number off 1. They and others have done better.

They're called undecided voters deciding at the last minute. Also, it was a RUNOFF.

And? Were they or were they not off by 5 on Cruz's number?

Yeah PPP is a troll/hack organization...tell that to David Dewhurst!

Now you're getting it! http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/22/calculating-house-effects-of-polling-firms/

[mondale84]

It's PPP FWIW, but 11 points is the biggest lead they've given Romney in Arizona this cycle.

Yeah PPP is a troll/hack organization...tell that to David Dewhurst!

PPP predicted 52-42 in Tx runoff. Result was 57-43%. Their Cruz number was off by 5, and Dewhurst number off 1. They and others have done better.

They're called undecided voters deciding at the last minute. Also, it was a RUNOFF.

And? Were they or were they not off by 5 on Cruz's number?

Ummmm, runoffs are hard to predict and no pollster has 0 undecideds. It's not that hard to understand...

[Brittain33]

Polling primaries is extremely hard! It's remarkable when they're in the right ballpark.

[pbrower2a]

Arizona -- out of contention. Safe R. Forget anything that I said about Arizona being a possible Obama pickup.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Arizona is the sleeper state of 2012. It could surprise us. A poll out last week showed Obama had the largest lead among Hispanics in Arizona. Even higher than Colorado and New Mexico. They could swing it.

[NVGonzalez]

Same thing as Georgia. If the Obama campaign can make Romney spend money there it would be a positive sign and a moral victory.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Arizona is the sleeper state of 2012. It could surprise us. A poll out last week showed Obama had the largest lead among Hispanics in Arizona. Even higher than Colorado and New Mexico. They could swing it.

After PPP failed in the Florida primary, largely because of misspolling hispanics, I wouldn't be surprised if this poll has a similar problem. What poll are you referring to?

[Torie]

Hispanics in AZ in the past have voted more Pub than other Hispanics in the West - it's more like Texas. Part of the reason is that an unusually high percentage of AZ Hispanics are Protestant Evangelicals, something like 40%. So based on that history and demographic, I would question a poll that has Obama doing better in AZ rather than worse among Hispanics in other Western states.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Hispanics in AZ in the past have voted more Pub than other Hispanics in the West - it's more like Texas. Part of the reason is that an unusually high percentage of AZ Hispanics are Protestant Evangelicals, something like 40%. So based on that history and demographic, I would question a poll that has Obama doing better in AZ rather than worse among Hispanics in other Western states.

Considering all the previous polls that Romney in the 20%'s amongst AZ Hispanics, wouldn't it be wiser to question the poll with Romney doing better amongst them?

[Torie]

Hispanics in AZ in the past have voted more Pub than other Hispanics in the West - it's more like Texas. Part of the reason is that an unusually high percentage of AZ Hispanics are Protestant Evangelicals, something like 40%. So based on that history and demographic, I would question a poll that has Obama doing better in AZ rather than worse among Hispanics in other Western states.

Considering all the previous polls that Romney in the 20%'s amongst AZ Hispanics, wouldn't it be wiser to question the poll with Romney doing better amongst them?

I am just relating the past to you, and the religious variance. In any event, as you know, the small sample size makes the Hispanic poll numbers problematical, plus Hispanics tend to be tough to poll. Yes, it may be true that the AZ contretemps about illegals and all have caused more ethnic/racial polarization in AZ than was true in the past. I guess we will just have to watch and wait.

[Adam Griffin]

If PPP is anywhere near correct on this, it presents a stark contrast with the Arizona Senate poll they released about a week ago. That poll had Carmona and Flake tied, albeit with a paltry 38% each.

[pbrower2a]

If PPP is anywhere near correct on this, it presents a stark contrast with the Arizona Senate poll they released about a week ago. That poll had Carmona and Flake tied, albeit with a paltry 38% each.

Carmona is Hispanic. Obama is not.

[Adam Griffin]

If PPP is anywhere near correct on this, it presents a stark contrast with the Arizona Senate poll they released about a week ago. That poll had Carmona and Flake tied, albeit with a paltry 38% each.

Carmona is Hispanic. Obama is not.

Because it's always that black and white. I'm guessing then that the Latino voters of Arizona have collectively decided that Romney is in fact a genuine Latino immigrant to this country from Chihuahua and are now moving to support him?