Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS Swing State Poll: Obama with big leads in PA, OH & FL

[MorningInAmerica]

Florida D+9! Ohio D+ 8!

Rightttt....

GIGO. Shrug.

I already thought you would complain about the sample. But Quinnipiac asked both questions in this poll: partisan ID and how respondents are registered.

How those "likely voters" are currently registered:

FL: 42% DEM, 36% GOP, 22% IND/OTH
OH: 42% DEM, 35% GOP, 22% IND/OTH
PA: 46% DEM, 40% GOP, 14% IND/OTH

Very similar to the actual voter registration numbers in each state.

But of course you don't like the numbers ...

Tender Branson, do you honestly believe that if the party ID in Florida in 2008 was D+3, a year in which Democrats shattered records, that it will be D+9 this time??? If so, you're fooling yourself. Same applies for the Ohio poll. Quinnipiac is forceasting the same turnout as in 2008. Not sure what's gotten into Quinnipiac. Remember there Florida poll from a couple months back that was R+3? How could they switch to a likely voter model and find D+9? Makes no sense at all.

[MorningInAmerica]

Basically all Quinnipiac just did was show us how Mitt Romney is performing in a 2008 electorate (D+9, D+8, D+6). I'd be interested in knowing how Romney performs in a likely 2012 electorate.

[MorningInAmerica]

Still... anyone want to explain how Florida is D+9 in 2012, but D+3 in 2008? Christian Heinze does a good job of pointing out theproblem with the polls. Also, for those complaining, it's not about trashing polls you don't like. It's about looking at crosstabs and using common sense. Common sense doesn't dictate that in a year with Republican enthusiasm expected to be stronger than in '08, Florida would become 7 points MORE democratic.

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http://gop12.thehill.com/2012/08/poll-shows-obama-with-solid-leads-in.html

[MorningInAmerica]

Harry Enten of the UK's The Guardian just tweeted this. Little perspective:
https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/230747065632825344

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[MorningInAmerica]

Basically all Quinnipiac just did was show us how Mitt Romney is performing in a 2008 electorate (D+9, D+8, D+6). I'd be interested in knowing how Romney performs in a likely 2012 electorate.

Romney probably wins with a 2010 electorate.

Nothing says that the 2012 electorate will be essentially more R than that of 2008. Expect the Obama campaign to have an effective GOTV campaign coordinated with unions. The GOP has done nothing to win over young voters. Romney increasingly looks like a bad candidate; his foreign tour was a disaster.  

It is possible to shape an election by shaping the electorate. You can be sure that the Obama campaign will be registering every possible D voter and goading each one to go to the polls. The Tea Party has achieved very little except to offend moderates and liberals. If President Obama and his people can help it far more than "likely (as a group R-leaning) voters" will be voting.

Even if States are sure things, Senate seats and many House seats are not.    

Hear what you're saying, but it sounds like you're talking yourself into something. I don't see how anyone can believe that the 2012 electorate will be MORE Democratic than the 2008 electorate. Pure and simple.

Remember. Obama has a record now. Much unlike four years ago.