Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS Swing State Poll: Obama with big leads in PA, OH & FL

[krazen1211]

Florida D+9! Ohio D+ 8!

Rightttt....

GIGO. Shrug.

[krazen1211]

Florida D+9! Ohio D+ 8!

Rightttt....

GIGO. Shrug.

I already thought you would complain about the sample. But Quinnipiac asked both questions in this poll: partisan ID and how respondents are registered.

How those "likely voters" are currently registered:

FL: 42% DEM, 36% GOP, 22% IND/OTH
OH: 42% DEM, 35% GOP, 22% IND/OTH
PA: 46% DEM, 40% GOP, 14% IND/OTH

Very similar to the actual voter registration numbers in each state.

But of course you don't like the numbers ...

Well, that's interesting, because Florida is actually only 40% D by registration and most expect a dropoff for the Democrats of 2 points or so when using a likely voter screen. It's very curious to flip that in the opposite direction.

And where precisely did you get your actual voter registration for Ohio?

[krazen1211]

Florida D+9! Ohio D+ 8!

Rightttt....

GIGO. Shrug.

I already thought you would complain about the sample. But Quinnipiac asked both questions in this poll: partisan ID and how respondents are registered.

How those "likely voters" are currently registered:

FL: 42% DEM, 36% GOP, 22% IND/OTH
OH: 42% DEM, 35% GOP, 22% IND/OTH
PA: 46% DEM, 40% GOP, 14% IND/OTH

Very similar to the actual voter registration numbers in each state.

But of course you don't like the numbers ...

Well, that's interesting, because Florida is actually only 40% D by registration and most expect a dropoff for the Democrats of 2 points or so when using a likely voter screen. It's very curious to flip that in the opposite direction.

And where precisely did you get your actual voter registration for Ohio?

It doesn't really matter what "most believe". The poll tells us something different.

There is no party registration in OH, but for the other 2.

'The poll' doesn't tell us; rather, those doing the party weighting of the poll do.

Actual calls by 'the poll' show a mere 1% edge for the Democrats in the unweighted sample in Florida and a 4% edge for the Democrats in Ohio. Certainly you and others are entitled to figure that such should translate into a 6/7% edge for the Democrats, but that's on you.

[krazen1211]

Well, I guess the folks "weighting" the polls at Quinnipiac know what they are doing.

Otherwise they wouldn't have correctly predicted the Romney+14 win in FL in the primaries and the Romney+1 win in OH. And also their FL 2008 poll was spot on, OH was only off by 2 points and PA was also spot on.

That's a possibility. That would of course discount that they 'knew what they were doing' a mere 3 months ago when the sample was GOP + 3, and, as to be expected, Romney had a 6 point lead.

At the time, interestingly enough, those results were disputed by Democrats.

Of course on October 23, 2008, Quinnipiac released a poll showing Obama up 14 in Ohio over McCain. Thus, history shows at best that they sometimes know what they are doing.

[krazen1211]

This is also fitting for this thread (coming from Scotty Rasmussen):

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And he's being generous to the Republicans. When was the last time Republicans actually outnumbered Democrats among the general public? It simply hasn't happened in my lifetime, so Ras is wrong when he says it has.

A party for the rich simply isn't going to have that much real support.

According to what you just quoted, about 5 seconds ago.