NC: Rasmussen: Romney up 5

[pbrower2a]

Yes, one Rasmussen poll surely means that this state is no longer competitive.

Do you guys even read anymore, or just have scripts you type from?

Irony was intended.

I'm working in the CLT area this summer and have noticed too that the ads from both Obama and Romney have dropped off since late spring, early summer. Sign that NC will be out of reach?

No one said the poll meant NC was out of contention. We simply said that we've both noticed less ads in NC since early summer, and questioned whether that meant it was being less competitive. And Miles clearly refuted it. Everything else about "well NC must not bee competitive" from the sarcastic liberals was just to see themselves type a post.
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5% -- still competitive.

8% -- fringe of competitiveness.

12% or more -- out of competition. 

[pbrower2a]

I can't give exact numbers, let alone a workable algorithm. The only leads that matter in the end are those at the end of the vote count or after victory is clinched for a candidate. The continuum between closeness in a statewide election as for the President (Missouri and North Carolina in 2008) and overwhelming blowouts (DC and Wyoming in 2008) has no clear divide.

With enough time and effort a state might swing in an unexpected manner. Thus if President Obama were behind by 10% in Tennessee (I do not believe that the case) late in 2011 and perceived that the state were ripe for him he might make numerous appearances in the Volunteer State, and his campaign would expend much on political advertising, if such were the only way in which to win. But July 2012? No.

As time runs out in a close election nominees withdraw efforts in places not needed for a win and in sure things for themselves. But if winning depends on winning one state and the hope that one will win everything close, then you have John McCain making a last-minute campaign in Pennsylvania... to the detriment of efforts in Florida, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia, all but one of which he lost.

If President Obama is up by 2% in Ohio and down by 5% in North Carolina in late October and either one of them is possibly the difference between winning and losing, then where do you think his campaign will expend last-minute resources?   Bingo.

But this is on the assumption that the Presidential election is close at least most of the electoral season. If the election isn't close then it isn't very interesting, is it?