IN-Rasmussen: Romney up by 16

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I expect to see a big reversion to the mean on election night in traditionally Republican manufacturing areas (NW Ohio, N Indiana, C Wisconsin, etc). This poll isn't too far-fetched although it likely is an outlier.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Too high, but Romney will almost certainly pick up the state. I'm expecting a 6-10% Romney win.

[mondale84]

Gallup's Obama approval tracking released this week shows Obama at 38% in Indiana. That's abysmal.  In the scheme of presidential elections, 2008 was an outlier for Indiana because it is not the start of some trend toward Indiana becoming a swing/D state.  It was a one hit wonder

If you think Willard Mitt Romney is going to play as well as GWB in Indiana, I have a nice lake house in Nevada to sell you...

[Adam Griffin]

It's not as if Obama's Indiana strategy and ground game in 2008 solely involved encroaching media markets and shoving television spots so far down the throats of uber-Republican Indianans - one of the most partisan states by affiliation - that they switched parties. There was a massive canvassing/GOTV effort that added to the roles upwards of 200,000 new Democrats and Democratic-leaning individuals. Is Romney, RNC, or any of the other unaffiliated groups mounting massive registration drives in Indiana? I highly doubt it, and even if they are trying, there's no way in hell they come anywhere near duplicating Obama's success in 2008.

No doubt that turnout will be lower among these individuals and some will defect, but gone are the days where a Republican contender can hit 57, 58, 59%+ of the vote.

[TJ in Oregon]

In the scheme of presidential elections, 2008 was an outlier for Indiana because it is not the start of some trend toward Indiana becoming a swing/D state.  It was a one hit wonder

Probably true, but Obama's not going to do worse than Kerry (39%) here.

Even if this poll isn't an outlier, it already had Obama at 35% and 11% are undecideds. Presumably Obama will get somewhere close to half of them and easily do better than 39%.

[Eraserhead]

Nope.

[pbrower2a]

I'm more concerned with the sample size than the online nature of the poll.

Any on-line poll is to be rejected.

Again, in Canada, in the last elections, the online polls were often the more exact.
Given than the internet access is pretty much the same in USA than in Canada, that isn't a reason for rejection. And pretty much all polls now here are online, now and they are still good.

Depends of the methodology used, in fact.

Canadian demographics are very different from American demographics.

[timothyinMD]

In the scheme of presidential elections, 2008 was an outlier for Indiana because it is not the start of some trend toward Indiana becoming a swing/D state.  It was a one hit wonder

Probably true, but Obama's not going to do worse than Kerry (39%) here.

Even if this poll isn't an outlier, it already had Obama at 35% and 11% are undecideds. Presumably Obama will get somewhere close to half of them and easily do better than 39%.

Most undecideds go for the challenger though

[RI]

In the scheme of presidential elections, 2008 was an outlier for Indiana because it is not the start of some trend toward Indiana becoming a swing/D state.  It was a one hit wonder

Probably true, but Obama's not going to do worse than Kerry (39%) here.

Even if this poll isn't an outlier, it already had Obama at 35% and 11% are undecideds. Presumably Obama will get somewhere close to half of them and easily do better than 39%.

Most undecideds go for the challenger though

That really isn't true in any meaningful sense anymore (though it's still too early to even really be analyzing). It's been pretty close to a 50-50 split in the past decade, though evidence shows it was true in earlier times. Kerry, for example, actually lost undecideds.

[Tender Branson]

I'm entering the 2 Rasmussen polls to the database.

IN seems to be not polled very often otherwise.

[cinyc]

I'm entering the 2 Rasmussen polls to the database.

IN seems to be not polled very often otherwise.

A law banning robo-polling is one reason Indiana isn't polled much.  Rasmussen, PPP and others can't poll it without added expense of using live operators - or going the Internet polling route.

[pbrower2a]

The first one corroborated what most of us thought about Indiana. The second one is way out of line. Indiana is not 20% more R than Florida, Ohio, or Virginia. Indiana is more rural than either of those three states -- but it isn't as rural as Kansas or Nebraska. The only way that Indiana goes Solid R is if the energy industry becomes the dominant factor in the economy.