Early signs on election night.

[Thomas D]

Let's say it's November 4 and a friend who knows you follow politics asks you what they should look for early on election night if they want to know who's going to win.

I'd say look at 2 states at 8:30 ET. PA and NC. If PA is too close to call that's a bad sign for President Obama and if NC is too close to call it's a bad sign for Governor Romney.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

If Obama is projected to win every 7:00 state, the election has probably been decided.

[greenforest32]

Keep your eye on the real swingsters: http://www.theonion.com/articles/report-2012-election-likely-to-be-decided-by-4-or,28900/

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

If NC and PA are both too close to call, then it is going to be close.

[mondale84]

If Romney doesn't carry BOTH Indiana and Georgia as their polls close at 7:00 EST, he's done.

[pbrower2a]

If either Indiana or Kentucky isn't called quickly for Mitt Romney... Republicans might as well turn to the old-movies channel. 

[You kip if you want to...]

Anything less than a 54-46 lead in Indiana to Mitt shortly after the polls have closed and we can all collectively stick a fork in him...

[Devils30]

Obama leading early or close in VA its over because the rural counties usually report first.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Bad for Romney: IN, GA not being called for Romney either straight away or within the hour

Bad for Obama: PA, NH being 'too close to call'

[timothyinMD]

If either Indiana or Kentucky isn't called quickly for Mitt Romney... Republicans might as well turn to the old-movies channel. 

Bull.  sh**t.   The media always call states late for Republicans.  It's their MO.   In 2004 they waited over an hour to call SC, LA and MS for Bush when everyone knew damn well he'd won them, yet they called NJ for Kerry upon close when he won it by just half the margin Bush won those states

[Thomas D]

If either Indiana or Kentucky isn't called quickly for Mitt Romney... Republicans might as well turn to the old-movies channel. 

Bull.  sh**t.   The media always call states late for Republicans.  It's their MO.   In 2004 they waited over an hour to call SC, LA and MS for Bush when everyone knew damn well he'd won them, yet they called NJ for Kerry upon close when he won it by just half the margin Bush won those states

To be fair they had exit polls that had Bush up 1 in MS.

[JFK-Democrat]

If PA is called as the polls close and Obama is tied or within -2% down in the raw vote totals from Ohio and VA, then he will win. As you may know, the big cities (Cleveland's and No Va, etc) take awhile to count and report the votes, so the above scenario would mean Romney's total from the rural counties are not large enough to counter the urban votes that will be 2:1 in Obama's favor.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Anything less than a 54-46 lead in Indiana to Mitt shortly after the polls have closed and we can all collectively stick a fork in him...

I agree, but they're not going to call Indiana right away because of the 2008 result there.

If either Indiana or Kentucky isn't called quickly for Mitt Romney... Republicans might as well turn to the old-movies channel. 

Bull.  sh**t.   The media always call states late for Republicans.  It's their MO.   In 2004 they waited over an hour to call SC, LA and MS for Bush when everyone knew damn well he'd won them, yet they called NJ for Kerry upon close when he won it by just half the margin Bush won those states

To be fair they had exit polls that had Bush up 1 in MS.

The exit polls in 2004 were WAY off, so that might have been a factor.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Anything less than a 54-46 lead in Indiana to Mitt shortly after the polls have closed and we can all collectively stick a fork in him...

I agree, but they're not going to call Indiana right away because of the 2008 result there.

If either Indiana or Kentucky isn't called quickly for Mitt Romney... Republicans might as well turn to the old-movies channel. 

Bull.  sh**t.   The media always call states late for Republicans.  It's their MO.   In 2004 they waited over an hour to call SC, LA and MS for Bush when everyone knew damn well he'd won them, yet they called NJ for Kerry upon close when he won it by just half the margin Bush won those states

To be fair they had exit polls that had Bush up 1 in MS.

The exit polls in 2004 were WAY off, so that might have been a factor.

I do love the GOP conspiracy theory on this... the Exit Polls were dodgy all over, but especially pronounced in the South... I suppose they don't know what to do with themselves unless they think the MSM is out to get them.

[mondale84]

Anything less than a 54-46 lead in Indiana to Mitt shortly after the polls have closed and we can all collectively stick a fork in him...

I agree, but they're not going to call Indiana right away because of the 2008 result there.

If either Indiana or Kentucky isn't called quickly for Mitt Romney... Republicans might as well turn to the old-movies channel. 

Bull.  sh**t.   The media always call states late for Republicans.  It's their MO.   In 2004 they waited over an hour to call SC, LA and MS for Bush when everyone knew damn well he'd won them, yet they called NJ for Kerry upon close when he won it by just half the margin Bush won those states

To be fair they had exit polls that had Bush up 1 in MS.

The exit polls in 2004 were WAY off, so that might have been a factor.

I do love the GOP conspiracy theory on this... the Exit Polls were dodgy all over, but especially pronounced in the South... I suppose they don't know what to do with themselves unless they think the MSM is out to get them.

But of course! They're conservatives, only poor, helpless and hapless victims...

[Tender Branson]

If the first states KY and IN are not called right away, Romney is toast.

[timothyinMD]

If the first states KY and IN are not called right away, Romney is toast.

They will be, so don't worry.  It's not a conspiracy theory, it's true.

Election 2000

Ariz, Bush by 7 CNN took 2 hrs, 51 mins
Mich, Gore by 4, CNN took just 1 hr, 24

Arkansas, Bush by 6, CNN took 3 hrs, 42 mins
Penn, Gore by 4, CNN too 1 hr, 24 mins

Tennessee, Bush by 3, CNN took 3 hrs, 3 mins
Minnesota, Gore by 2, CNN too 1 hr, 25 mins

West Virginia, Bush by 6, CNN took 3 hours, 15 mins
Washington, Gore by 5, CNN took 1 hr, 8 mins..


Shall I go on?

[HagridOfTheDeep]

If the first states KY and IN are not called right away, Romney is toast.

They might refrain from calling Indiana just because of last time, even though it will obviously go for Romney.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If the first states KY and IN are not called right away, Romney is toast.

Considering Kentucky was called right at 7 ET in 2008, I don't expect that to be different this time.  However, South Carolina is likely to be called before Indiana, and probably needs to be called before West Virginia closes at 7:30 if Romney is to have a decent shot at winning the election.

If South Carolina hasn't been called by 8, Romney's in for a rough night.

[Lief 🗽]

If the first states KY and IN are not called right away, Romney is toast.

They will be, so don't worry.  It's not a conspiracy theory, it's true.

Election 2000

Ariz, Bush by 7 CNN took 2 hrs, 51 mins
Mich, Gore by 4, CNN took just 1 hr, 24

Arkansas, Bush by 6, CNN took 3 hrs, 42 mins
Penn, Gore by 4, CNN too 1 hr, 24 mins

Tennessee, Bush by 3, CNN took 3 hrs, 3 mins
Minnesota, Gore by 2, CNN too 1 hr, 25 mins

West Virginia, Bush by 6, CNN took 3 hours, 15 mins
Washington, Gore by 5, CNN took 1 hr, 8 mins..


Shall I go on?

Have you ever considered that some states count slower or faster than others? Or some states report more uniformly than others? Or the fact that Bush won many traditionally solid dem states in 2000 (Arkansas, West Virginia) made existing turnout models (which these calls are based on) not as easily applicable as in places that were traditionally swing states (Pennsylvania, Michigan)?

Nah, some giant mainstream media conspiracy to depress Republican turnout in Alaska and Hawaii is obviously a more sensible explanation.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If the first states KY and IN are not called right away, Romney is toast.

Considering Kentucky was called right at 7 ET in 2008, I don't expect that to be different this time.  However, South Carolina is likely to be called before Indiana, and probably needs to be called before West Virginia closes at 7:30 if Romney is to have a decent shot at winning the election.

If South Carolina hasn't been called by 8, Romney's in for a rough night.

Trying to infer too much from the early reporting states can lead to problems. In 2010, some were using Yarmuth as a barometer. Hmm, a relatively liberal Democrat in a swing district in Kentucky wins re-election by 11 points. Yeah, that totally sounds like the Democrats are going to have a net loss of 63 seats.

I mean forget about everything you know about the 2010 election. Now read this article. Now you are given that Yarmuth won by 11. 2010 must have been a pretty good election for the Democrats.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/writeup/kentucky_3-14.html

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If the first states KY and IN are not called right away, Romney is toast.

Considering Kentucky was called right at 7 ET in 2008, I don't expect that to be different this time.  However, South Carolina is likely to be called before Indiana, and probably needs to be called before West Virginia closes at 7:30 if Romney is to have a decent shot at winning the election.

If South Carolina hasn't been called by 8, Romney's in for a rough night.

Trying to infer too much from the early reporting states can lead to problems. In 2010, some were using Yarmuth as a barometer. Hmm, a relatively liberal Democrat in a swing district in Kentucky wins re-election by 11 points. Yeah, that totally sounds like the Democrats are going to have a net loss of 63 seats.

I mean forget about everything you know about the 2010 election. Now read this article. Now you are given that Yarmuth won by 11. 2010 must have been a pretty good election for the Democrats.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/writeup/kentucky_3-14.html

Lally was poor candidate.  Romney may not be that great, but he's better than that.  It was a poor race to use as a barometer.

South Carolina was called between 7:30 and 8 in 2008.  Since Romney needs to do better than 2008, even with some allowance for demographic shift that might help Obama, if South Carolina isn't called by 8, the Mittbot is in for a hurting.

[TJ in Oregon]

Whether or not a state is called the instant the polls close has more to do with exit polling and previous polling than the actual vote.

I expect KY to be called immediately, but not IN. While Romney may be an overwhelming favorite to win IN, it's not so overwhelming that it will likely be called until they start to actually count votes.

[TJ in Oregon]

Also when Ohio's vote comes in, the more Democratic parts tend to report very early or very late while the more Republican parts tend to report sort of in-between.

[timothyinMD]

Election 2004:

Connecticut, Kerry by 10, NBC calls immediately
Arizona, Bush by 10, NBC waits 1 hour, 42 mins

New Jersey, Kerry by 7, NBC calls immediately
Missouri, Bush by 7, NBC waits 2 hours, 16 mins


The whole night Brokaw and Russert acted pro Kerry.  Sometime around between 7:30 and 8, Brokaw said.. "oh it's unusual that we can't call SC yet.  That doesn't bode well for Bush" 

Then when they called Ohio for Bush, they refused to call the election for Bush, even though Kerry had no chance.. and they kept undermining their own call saying.. "Well the Kerry people have the right to have every vote counted before they concede"

Typical NBC