Corby by-election

[Leftbehind]

It seems our requests for a more competitive by-election were answered. With Liberal support being the bedrock for most of Labour's resurgence, yet confined to the early teens in this constituency, it'll be instructive seeing how large Labour's swing is.

[Leftbehind]

Ashcroft's done some polling, with the results being:

Lab 52% (+13%)
Con 37% (-5%)
Lib  7% (-8%)
Oth  4% (-1%)

If realised that'd be a half-way house between 1997 and 2001 results - certainly a signal they're on course for a comfortable majority next election.

[Leftbehind]

I'm just looking at a history of recent by-election polling. Ashcroft's Feltham and Heston poll was surprisingly accurate; within a couple of points of both the Labour and Tory percentages. Survation will probably release a poll at some point too. They were even more accurate in Feltham and Heston; they understated Labour and overstated the Tories each by a single point.

But yeah, quite a lot of by-election polls have been....well, pretty ghastly. Probably most notably the two polls for Glasgow East in 2008 - they both predicted an easy Labour hold.

For posterity:

Oldham East & Saddleworth
ICM         Lab 44%, Lib 27%, Con 18%
Populus     Lab 46%, Lib 29%, Con 15%
Survation   Lab 41%, Lib 40%, Con 8%
Actual      Lab 42%, Lib 32%, Con 13%

Barnsley Central
Survation   Lab 63%, Con 13%, UKIP 9%, Lib 6%, BNP 4%
Actual      Lab 61%, UKIP 12%, Con 8%, BNP 6%, Lib 4%,

Leicester South
Survation   Lab 61%, Con 20%, Lib 14%, UKIP 5%
Actual      Lab 58%, Lib 22%, Con 15%, UKIP 3%

Feltham & Heston
Populus     Lab 52%, Con 30%, Lib 10%
Survation   Lab 53%, Con 29%, Lib 7%, UKIP 7%
Actual      Lab 54%, Con 28%, Lib 6%, UKIP 5%

[Leftbehind]

Anyways, Andy Sawford is the son of Phil Sawford (Labour MP for Kettering 1997-2005). I presume from his CV that he's not as left-wing as his dad, but that kind of thing can be deceptive.

All too deceptive. It's frustrating how clandestine general political stances are kept. Reading their leaflets makes little difference, either. 

[Leftbehind]

Behind a paywall, but why the f**k are they still posing the question as the title when they - as well as other newspapers - have got a video of him admitting it.