Corby by-election

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This is... er... random. Anyways, this is a socially polarised marginal created for the 1983 election and has backed the winning party in every General Election since. Corby town is a slab of molten Motherwell placed in the middle of Northants and is a Labour fortress, while most of the rest of the constituency is as naturally Conservative as anywhere in Northants (lacking, for the most part, the footwear manufacturing past of places further west) and has grown more so with time. Area around Oundle (with its posh school) is especially Tory. Some smaller towns where both parties poll well, of course; former footwear manufacturing places (mostly) though since heavily gentrified (for want of a better word). That will probably do for now.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's more that Corby doesn't fit in well with the area it's paired for for parliamentary purposes than it not fitting in at all with its surrounds; it's on the edge of the bit of Northants that had rural industrial (and Liberal turned Labour) traditions and is less alien in some respects than all the middle class developments that started springing up all over the county in the 60s and 70s. In that context it's really only the Scottishness that's weird.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He was selected a while ago and has been nursing the seat. From the area, which rarely hurts.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Insert the usual remarks about the trouble with constituency polling, etc.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

For reference, all General Election results for the Corby constituency ever:

2010: Con 42.2, Labour 38.6, LDem 14.5, BNP 4.7
2005: Labour 43.1, Con 40.0, LDem 12.7, UKIP 2.6, SLP 1.0, Ind 0.5
2001: Labour 49.3, Con 37.2, LDem 10.1, UKIP 1.8, SLP 1.6
1997: Labour 55.4, Con 33.4, LDem 7.5, RP 2.5, UKIP 0.9, NLP 0.3
1992: Con 44.5, Labour 43.9, LDem 10.2, Lib 1.4
1987: Con 44.3, Labour 40.9, Lib 14.8
1983: Con 42.6, Labour 36.1, Lib 20.3, EP 1.0

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm a little surprised that said publicity seeking right-wing blogger put that one about; most cricketers are rather nerdish about the history of the sport, which means they all know about Ted Dexter and his ill-advised run against Callaghan in '64.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyways, Andy Sawford is the son of Phil Sawford (Labour MP for Kettering 1997-2005). I presume from his CV that he's not as left-wing as his dad, but that kind of thing can be deceptive.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What was the story there? It's the first I've heard of it.

Callaghan's majority in Cardiff South East fell under 1,000 votes in 1959 and local Tories thought he might be vulnerable next time round. So in 1964 Ted Dexter was drafted in as a star candidate; the theory was that his celebrity status would negate the national swing to Labour. His campaign was a trainwreck of epic proportions; amongst other things he seriously suggested to an audience made up mostly of dockers and steelworkers that they ought to consider sending their children to Eton. Callaghan increased his majority to just under 8,000.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Given that their biggest success on Nov. 15th is likely to be in Corby, it's a bit embarrassing for Labour that their candidate for Northants Police Commissioner has had to withdraw. But then interest in the commissioner election is so low that probably no-one will notice.

What happens when he wins - as with differential turnout he well might?

By-election

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Vague rumours floating around that UKIP might have come second.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

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Of course this may just be from Corby town.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labourlist is suggesting a Labour majority of about 4000.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

All reports from the count indicate that Labour is miles ahead.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour 48.4%, Con 26.6%, UKIP 14.3%, LDem 5%, Others, whatever.

Labour majority of 7,791 (21.8%)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

LibDems asked for a recount to see if they'd kept their deposit. Which is fine. They then asked for another one.

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