AN's "Swing State" Maps

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Iowa maybe, but Romney has yet to lead a poll out of Colorado.

It has been tied in CO though.

Hah. Spoke too soon.

that's really good news

Not really, that Colorado poll by Quinnipac has multiple markers of being heavily skewed towards the Republicans.  Once you correct for any of them, it is a slight Obama poll, not a Lean Romney.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

How is it possible to consider New Mexico a tossup at this point?

New Mexico is a swing state, and remember, Gore only carried it by 366 votes in 2000 and Bush narrowly carried it in 2004.

Bush was able to actually appeal to Hispanics. McCain didn't and I see no reason to believe that Romney will either.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

My swing state map:

Obama- 193
Romney- 191
Toss-Up- 154

How is it possible to consider New Mexico a tossup at this point?

New Mexico is a swing state, and remember, Gore only carried it by 366 votes in 2000 and Bush narrowly carried it in 2004.

Why is SC more Republican than Louisiana, Tennessee,  Arkansas, or Kentucky?

Louisiana should be more Republican than South Carolina.  Arizona should be more Republican than Missouri. New Mexico, Nevada, lean Obama.

While the margin of Mitt's victory may well be smaller than that of  Louisiana, Tennessee,  Arkansas, or Kentucky, it is safely Mitt's.  We have compared to most places a very small middle. (Politically that is, we don't fare as well on obesity.)  Nate Silver pointed out on his 538 blog that SC has the third smallest swing according to his measures.  Mitt has no chance of getting 60% of the vote here, but he also has no chance of getting less than 50%.