AN's "Swing State" Maps

[AmericanNation]

IF held today = Obama 303 / Romney 235(-34)
   "Swing" = Obama 243(-27) / Romney 206(-63) / Toss 89
"swing score"= Obama 60     /  Romney 29
Closest states to becoming tossups = NC, NV

[AmericanNation]

Rhode Island is a tossup?

no, it was left blank... corrected.

[AmericanNation]

CO is more of a tossup than NV, you're wrong on that. VA is barely for Obama, and AZ is solid Romney based on polls. FL is tossup still.

everything you said, is the way I have it.  ...except for the part about me being wrong.

[AmericanNation]

The only poll showing Obama not leading in Florida since May has been Purple Strategies, an uproven pollster with no track record. Calling the state slight Romney makes no sense.

PPP has it O+1
Purple = R + 3
Quinnipiac looks all messed up with useless registered voter samples.

You should acknowledge their really hasn't been much good polling done in Florida lately.  

[AmericanNation]

CO is more of a tossup than NV, you're wrong on that. VA is barely for Obama, and AZ is solid Romney based on polls. FL is tossup still.

I haven't seen a single poll with Romney ahead in NV; the same cannot be said for CO.

Yea... CO IS a tossup.  NV is the closest lean dem state to becoming a tossup.  

[AmericanNation]

Also SurveyUSA has Obama +5 and Mason-Dixon has Obama +1. At worst (for Obama), the state is a tie.

It's Romney+1 on the map.  I'll flip it when I see some better polling for either side.  I could have left it blank, but I think it's better to leave it very slight lean R until we have some reason to think otherwise.  The state leans that way, Romney has been out of the country, The Veepstakes are around the corner, and the convention is in Tampa for crying out loud.       

[AmericanNation]

Iowa and Colorado are colored wrongly.

That's what I meant to say.

My bad AmericanNation.

Like how?  more D? or even?

[AmericanNation]

Iowa and Colorado are colored wrongly.

That's what I meant to say.

My bad AmericanNation.

Like how?  more D? or even?

Even.

Iowa maybe, but Romney has yet to lead a poll out of Colorado.

It has been tied in CO though.

[AmericanNation]

Iowa maybe, but Romney has yet to lead a poll out of Colorado.

It has been tied in CO though.

Hah. Spoke too soon.

that's really good news

[AmericanNation]

yea, I'm finding weird things happen when you drag an image.  They particularly happen in the southern region of New England. 

[AmericanNation]

IF held today = Obama 288         / Romney 235(-34)    / Toss 15
"Swing_less" = Obama 243(-27) / Romney 206(-63)   / Toss 89
"swing score"= Obama 45          /  Romney 29           / Toss 15
IN "Swing_State-us" = 8 states.  =less(23 R / 19[+DC] D)
Closest states to becoming tossups = NC, NV

[AmericanNation]

My swing state map:

Obama- 193
Romney- 191
Toss-Up- 154

Yea, I have a "pinned" category where a swing-ish state shows a solid/consistent/likely lean, even though it is quite possible that it could theoretically flip.  Obama has PA, MI, NM, and NV "pinned" right now.  I expect NV will become pure-swing eventually.  NM and MI are other possibilities.  Romney has NC and will probably have FL (if he maintains a slight lead in national polls) pinned, especially after the VP and convention bumps.        

[AmericanNation]

How is it possible to consider New Mexico a tossup at this point?

Trend and history.  Obama at 42% is a pretty freighting thing for an incumbent president.  I have it as a pinned-down-swing-state, but it could become competitive relatively easily.     

[AmericanNation]

Before:

After:

...looks like a nice little trend toward Romney/Ryan.  They have certainly established a path to victory.