Who is most likely to win a 4th EV?

[muon2]

The population of MT is likely to exceed that of RI in 2020. None of the other states on the list is in position to do that. However, the most likely outcome at present rates will be for RI to lose a seat and MT fall short of gaining one.

[muon2]

An interesting occurrence in the Dakotas is that neither is likely to get second CD even out to 2030. However if the energy boom continues to keep population rates up, and the two states were merged, it is possible that they would qualify for a third CD in 2030.

[muon2]

An interesting occurrence in the Dakotas is that neither is likely to get second CD even out to 2030. However if the energy boom continues to keep population rates up, and the two states were merged, it is possible that they would qualify for a third CD in 2030.

Which is still a significant net loss in representation.

Certainly true due to the Senate. I was just looking at the House formula, where either would be short of a second alone.

[muon2]

Delaware gets there first if you just extend current growth rates ad infinitum, I think. It doesn't take much of an upward adjustment of the growth rate to give Montana its second seat, however.

That could be true but unlikely. DE is growing at 0.8% and MT is growing at 0.7% since MT is about 10.3% larger than DE it will take just under 100 years at these rates for DE to catch MT.