Can Romney win without OH? Maps?

[Likely Voter]

OH is considered a bellweather state. Last person to win without OH was JFK in 1960. No Republican has ever won without Ohio. But this year polling shows that OH is trending more Dem. The current RCP avg for OH is Obama +4.8, or about +1.3 ahead of the national numbers. This makes OH more Dem than most of the other swing states and indicates that if the race were a tie, OH would be on the Dem side.

Is this just a summer aberration and OH will swing back to its traditional position of leaning GOP?

If not, assuming PA and OH go for Obama, is there a credible path for Romney to win? Any maps?

[Likely Voter]

Basically Romney's challenge if he loses PA and OH is to win every single other swing state (FL, NC, VA, NH, CO, NV and IA). This gives him 273. It is possible, but odds are tough.

The 269 tie of losing OH and NH is also a possibility. And maybe the Romney campaign could pick off ME-2 at the end to avoid the hassle (remote).

I really don't see him breaking into any of the next tier of Dem states (PA, NM, WI, MN, MI, OR) while still losing OH and one of the other more swingy states.

Bottom line is that Romney needs to turn things around in OH. If he picks Portman as VP, it would indicate that they also see OH as a problem that needs to be fixed (not that he is going to be able to fix it easily)

[Likely Voter]

I see a lot of reliance on WI to help Romney but neither the Romney campaign, nor Rove or the other GOP superpacs are spending any money in WI. The lists of states where they are spending money is: MI, PA, OH, CO, IA, FL, VA, NV, NC, NH

It is pretty simple. In the case where Obama wins MI, PA and OH, Romney has to win the rest of the swing states where he is competing (FL, VA, CO, NV, NC, NH, IA). In any scenario where Romney has a +1.0 in the PV he should be able to pull that off. That gives him 273, although it has also been noted he doesn't need NH as 269 will also get him a win in the House.

The question is, what happens if the race is Romney +0.1 or +0.5...where are OH and NV in that scenario?