Basically President Obama has far more ways to win, and no single state so far makes the difference. But Mitt Romney has the opposite situation in which he must win a raft of states without losing one.
The situation is much as it was for John McCain, except that Nevada gets polled more often (and is surprisingly steady). That just about offsets the shift of electoral votes away from the Blue Firewall of 2008.
Mitt must win every one of these:
Colorado
Ohio
Virginia
Florida
North Carolina
Missouri
Obama won every one of these in 2008.
These are states different enough that there is no way to have any one campaign pitch that wins them all without reshaping the general race. Any one of them can move independently of each other. (If Indiana, Arizona, or Georgia were in play, then one could be sure that in each respective case Ohio, Colorado, and both North Carolina and Florida have gone for President Obama.
Wisconsin? Iowa? The Governor would have to cheat or induce cheating.
No he didn't.
But it looks very hard for Romney to win without Ohio.
