What would the election look like with only the minor party candidates?
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  What would the election look like with only the minor party candidates?
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Author Topic: What would the election look like with only the minor party candidates?  (Read 522 times)
Rhodie
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« on: August 08, 2012, 03:17:06 PM »

Discuss, with maps (unsure where to post this so I'll stick it here for now).



Goode: Constitution: 212
Stein: Green: 171
Johnson: Libertarian: 155
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Dereich
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« Reply #1 on: August 08, 2012, 03:26:20 PM »

I think the big question would be minorities; the greens appeal much more to the richer white liberals. Its not like blacks have always been a big leftist bloc, they were fine voting for big business Republicans for decades and their ties to the Democrats seems more a civil rights/anti white southern Republican thing while hispanics have only one party being anti-immigration (Constitution) and would be turned off by the more secular character of the Greens.
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Rhodie
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« Reply #2 on: August 08, 2012, 03:28:14 PM »

I think the big question would be minorities; the greens appeal much more to the richer white liberals. Its not like blacks have always been a big leftist bloc, they were fine voting for big business Republicans for decades and their ties to the Democrats seems more a civil rights/anti white southern Republican thing while hispanics have only one party being anti-immigration (Constitution) and would be turned off by the more secular character of the Greens.

I can't see most blacks supporting the small government Libertarians though, so I assume they would vote Green. Hispanics I can see splitting down the middle between Stein and Johnson.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #3 on: August 08, 2012, 03:34:57 PM »

Needs more Rocky Anderson!

Also, your map is very odd.
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Dereich
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« Reply #4 on: August 08, 2012, 03:36:46 PM »

I think the big question would be minorities; the greens appeal much more to the richer white liberals. Its not like blacks have always been a big leftist bloc, they were fine voting for big business Republicans for decades and their ties to the Democrats seems more a civil rights/anti white southern Republican thing while hispanics have only one party being anti-immigration (Constitution) and would be turned off by the more secular character of the Greens.

I can't see most blacks supporting the small government Libertarians though, so I assume they would vote Green. Hispanics I can see splitting down the middle between Stein and Johnson.

I would guess it would be something like 40-40-20 for hispanics with a much more divided black vote. A big question would be if, say, the Constitution candidate decided to race-bait to win southern whites. That would probably drive blacks into the green corner but I could see the libertarians making a push for them to win Chicago blacks (I'd assume that without a uniform Dem vote in Chicago it would be a major swing state) and maybe enough of those in the south to pull out a few pluralities. Oh, and Goode would win Virginia because its his home state. Heck, I'd say Johnson would be third there as Stein seems well suited to NOVA.
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Supersonic
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« Reply #5 on: August 08, 2012, 03:40:46 PM »
« Edited: August 08, 2012, 03:49:38 PM by Supersonic »



Goode: 269, elected via the House.
Stein: 165
Johnson: 104


It helps Goode immensely that he is the only socially conservative candidate, he wins by small pluralities across most states. Johnson dominates the west, while Stein holds on in the solid Democratic states.
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Yelnoc
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« Reply #6 on: August 08, 2012, 04:24:43 PM »

In making this map, I though less about the 2012 candidates and more about where each of the three parties would have appeal.  I don't see any of them being particularly appealing in the "rust-belt" region, because the Greens, Libertarians, and Constitutionists exist on largely non-economic planks (or, in the case of Libertarians, it is not their economic philosophy which motivates most of their voting base).



Green Party: 250
Libertarian Party: 156
Constitution Party: 132

The Constitutionists only compete in the south, plains states, and mountain west.  That means in traditionally Democratic states, the Greens win the leftist vote, and Libertarians the right.  Of course, the election goes to the house, and it's anybody's guess who the house selects.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #7 on: August 08, 2012, 05:00:39 PM »
« Edited: August 08, 2012, 05:02:11 PM by IDS Legislator Griffin »

With a split such as this among two conservative schools of thought, I think a Green Party candidacy would perform better in certain southern states where the African-American and/or Latino population is high enough and will most likely stay with the Greens.



Green Party: 298
Constitution Party: 150
Libertarian Party (+ME, NE): 90
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argentarius
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« Reply #8 on: August 08, 2012, 06:54:56 PM »

I imagine the constitution party would win solidly conservative states in the south and Kansas and Nebraska, and I couldn't decide on anywhere else between Johnson and Stein. Remember Goode makes Johnson look like a big time moderate.
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