IN-GSG (D): Internal Democratic poll shows a tied race

[Tender Branson]

The poll showed Democratic U.S. Rep. Joe Donnelly with 41 percent support, compared to 40 percent for Republican state Treasurer Richard Mourdock and 4 percent for Libertarian Andrew Horning.

The poll found that 51 percent of Hoosiers know who Donnelly is, with 34 percent viewing him favorably and 17 percent unfavorably. That compares to 70 percent name identification for Mourdock, with 37 percent seeing him favorably and 33 percent unfavorably.

The survey of 601 likely voters was paid for by Donnelly's campaign and conducted between Aug. 2 and Aug. 5 by Global Strategy Group. It includes a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points — making the race too close for there to be a clear leader.

It comes on the heels of a Rasmussen Reports poll released a week ago, which showed similar results, with Mourdock ahead, 42 percent to Donnelly's 40 percent — a lead also within the margin of error.

http://m.courierpress.com/news/2012/aug/08/48pt-hed1-20-inches-of-story-one-line-p

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

...Junk poll?

[morgieb]

Not so good to have an internal only showing the Dems up by 1.

But where's Mourdock's internals?

[Keystone Phil]

So this ought to end the hysteria that this is a tied race.

[Brittain33]

So this ought to end the hysteria that this is a tied race.

You shouldn't put too much stock in Donnelly's one point lead; it's not statistically significant.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

My primary objection to this poll is that it shows such a high number of undecided voters, but with this race, who knows?

[mondale84]

So this ought to end the hysteria that this is a tied race.

It is a tied race.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

So this ought to end the hysteria that this is a tied race.

Mourdock may have a slight edge but it's within the margin of error. He's more likely to win but this race went from being a sure thing for the Republicans two months ago to a contested battlefield, and when considering how precious each Senate seat is in taking control, this is a godsend for the Democrats.

[ZuWo]

So this ought to end the hysteria that this is a tied race.

It is a tied race.

This poll may suggest otherwise. Internal polls usually skew heavily towards the campaign which commissions the poll. We definitely need more polls on this race to know for sure, but this poll is not very encouraging for Donnelly.

[mondale84]

So this ought to end the hysteria that this is a tied race.

It is a tied race.

This poll may suggest otherwise. Internal polls usually skew heavily towards the campaign which commissions the poll. We definitely need more polls on this race to know for sure, but this poll is not very encouraging for Donnelly.

Neither is the Rasmussen poll encouraging to Mourdock since it shows it tied and Rassy is a hack outfit.

[ZuWo]

So this ought to end the hysteria that this is a tied race.

It is a tied race.

This poll may suggest otherwise. Internal polls usually skew heavily towards the campaign which commissions the poll. We definitely need more polls on this race to know for sure, but this poll is not very encouraging for Donnelly.

Neither is the Rasmussen poll encouraging to Mourdock since it shows it tied and Rassy is a hack outfit.

Rasmussen is not as hackish as you may want to believe. Indeed, it has a minor bias towards Republican candidates according to Nate Silver (just as PPP has been shown to have a bias towards Democrats) but if you keep this in mind you can get a pretty accurate picture of a race when looking at polls conducted by Rasmussen.
I repeat: We need more polls in this race (we only have a Rasmussen poll and this internal) to draw any meaningful conclusions but as a rule of thumb it's not good if an internal poll shows a candidate in a dead heat with his opponent.

[mondale84]

So this ought to end the hysteria that this is a tied race.

It is a tied race.

This poll may suggest otherwise. Internal polls usually skew heavily towards the campaign which commissions the poll. We definitely need more polls on this race to know for sure, but this poll is not very encouraging for Donnelly.

Neither is the Rasmussen poll encouraging to Mourdock since it shows it tied and Rassy is a hack outfit.

Rasmussen is not as hackish as you may want to believe. Indeed, it has a minor bias towards Republican candidates according to Nate Silver (just as PPP has been shown to have a bias towards Democrats) but if you keep this in mind you can get a pretty accurate picture of a race when looking at polls conducted by Rasmussen.
I repeat: We need more polls in this race (we only have a Rasmussen poll and this internal) to draw any meaningful conclusions but as a rule of thumb it's not good if an internal poll shows a candidate in a dead heat with his opponent.

It's also very telling when one candidate (Mourdock) isn't releasing any internals...presumably because they show he's toast...

[Keystone Phil]

So this ought to end the hysteria that this is a tied race.

It is a tied race.

Convincing argument. I'm sold.

And if you think Mourdock's polls show that he's toast, you're a) a moron (this is already known though) and b) contradicting yourself after saying it is a tied race.

[krazen1211]

Donnelly will end up like Koster in WA-01. Trumpet tied polls in the low 40s, and then watch all the undecideds flock to their natural party.

[tmthforu94]

FWIW, Mourdock's internals have been consistently showing him leading by 4-7 points.

[RI]

I rather liked Ellsworth and Donnelly seems like my type, but neither had/have much chance at actually winning statewide in Indiana. It's a fool's errand.