WA-SurveyUSA: Obama expands lead to 17 points among Likely Voters

[Tender Branson]

No specific numbers yet, we have to wait until the numbers appear on SUSA's page:

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http://www.king5.com/news/up-front/polls/KING-5-poll-Inslee-gains-ground-164955946.html

[Lief 🗽]

Those Bain ads sure are destroying Obama's numbers with wealthy suburban voters.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Those Bain ads sure are destroying Obama's numbers with wealthy suburban voters.

I doubt if anyone is running ads in Washington.  Maybe Oregon, but not Washington.

[Lief 🗽]

Those Bain ads sure are destroying Obama's numbers with wealthy suburban voters.

I doubt if anyone is running ads in Washington.  Maybe Oregon, but not Washington.

1) A lot of ads are being run nationally. Watching the Olympics, I see a few Obama ads per day despite the fact that I'm currently deep in the heart of Texas.

2) A lot of the exposure to Bain ads comes from their being rebroadcast on news networks, discussed by talking heads or in editorials, etc. People are still exposed to these things even if they never actually see the spot during a commercial break (see, the Swift Boat Ads).

[bgwah]

I wish I could comment on the commercial situation, but I watch very little live TV. I do believe I saw the Romney singing ad on Political Animals. I doubt they're airing during local stuff, though.

[mondale84]

If you watch the video link it shows:

Obama: 54
Romney: 37

[Tender Branson]

Crosstabs are now online:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=4c1a6bac-14db-4c7f-bd8a-c9bd8fbae726

[LastVoter]

Junk poll, Obama is not going to lead in E Wa.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Junk poll, Obama is not going to lead in E Wa.

Maybe they got Eastern and Western Washington mixed up, because they have Romney leading by 2 in WW.  lol

[Lief 🗽]

SUSA's crosstabs never ever make any sense. But their topline numbers are usually good. I don't know how this happens, but it does.

[bgwah]

Lief is right. Their cross tabs have always sucked, and they've always made Eastern WA too D and Western WA too R.

+17 does seem a little too good to be true, though.

[MorningInAmerica]

This is a likely voter poll, so it's worth noting the sample is D+9, while 2008 turnout in Washington was D+10 (when Obama won it by 17 points). In 04 when Kerry won the state 53-46%, the turnout was D+4.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

This is a likely voter poll, so it's worth noting the sample is D+9, while 2008 turnout in Washington was D+10 (when Obama won it by 17 points). In 04 when Kerry won the state 53-46%, the turnout was D+4.

Quite frankly that doesn't seem like an entirely unreasonable spread given the nature and recent patterns of the state.

[LastVoter]

I wonder if Obama is winning in Yakima county, considering the primary results.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

I wonder if Obama is winning in Yakima county, considering the primary results.

lol no.  The only Democrats who won the county during the primary were either running against multiple Republicans, or running uncontested.

[LastVoter]

I wonder if Obama is winning in Yakima county, considering the primary results.

lol no.  The only Democrats who won the county during the primary were either running against multiple Republicans, or running uncontested.

Well Inslee almost got 40 percent there, but it could be that he has local appeal among independents, so Obama and Inslee % there will be closer than in other places, rather than Yakima becoming more democratic.

[RI]

I wonder if Obama is winning in Yakima county, considering the primary results.

lol no.  The only Democrats who won the county during the primary were either running against multiple Republicans, or running uncontested.

Well Inslee almost got 40 percent there, but it could be that he has local appeal among independents, so Obama and Inslee % there will be closer than in other places, rather than Yakima becoming more democratic.

Inslee used to be the congressman representing Central Washington, including Yakima County, and he was a lawyer in Selah before that.