Does anyone here think the election day ID will be close to D+9? If you do, believe this poll. If not, put it in with the Colorado poll.
One Obama +7 and one Obama +9 poll may suggest that the Pew poll of last week was no outlier. Electoral collapses can happen at any time. Any sensible person first figures "outlier"... but see enough polls with roughly-similar results and the first outlier may be an early indication of huge change.
Possible explanation: Mitt Romney has made some serious gaffes and they are beginning to sink in. Sure, one can recover from a gaffe like the Obama classic "but they are tied to their guns and their religion" if they are clever enough in their rhetoric. But a politician who makes too many of them, makes gaffes too severe, or shows no ability to recover from them most likely shows himself going down to defeat.
OK -- the American economy remains a mess. The Iranian government rattles its sabers every few days. Mitt Romney's experience as a business executive looks at first sight like a qualification for competent management of the deficit. The GOP and related organizations seem to have unlimited funds for using against any Democrat. Above all, President Obama is a horrible march for the political culture of some states that Democrats once absolutely had to win to have a chance (Arkansas, Tennessee, West Virginia).
