Obama Gallup Approval Rating by State, Jan-Jun 2012

[Adam Griffin]

I wasn't able to find another post relating to this (thanks, search daemon). Looking at these new numbers reaffirms my confusion in why OFA picked AZ over GA, along with the new question of just how much has Obama improved in CO over the past couple of months - at least when compared to polling.

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http://www.gallup.com/poll/156389/Thirteen-States-Give-Obama-Majority-Approval.aspx

[krazen1211]

I wasn't able to find another post relating to this (thanks, search daemon). Looking at these new numbers reaffirms my confusion in why OFA picked AZ over GA, along with the new question of just how much has Obama improved in CO over the past couple of months - at least when compared to polling.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/156389/Thirteen-States-Give-Obama-Majority-Approval.aspx

Elasticity. Southern whites give the GOP 50% of the vote automatically.

[tmthforu94]

Most interesting things:
- Obama has the same approval rating in Ohio and Mississippi
- Obama's approval rating is over 50% in only around 26% of US States.

[Adam Griffin]

Elasticity. Southern whites give the GOP 50% of the vote automatically.

In most southern states that is the case, and currently the situation in Georgia. Arizona and Georgia have approximately the same % of Whites (57-59).

The difference between Georgia and Arizona, however, is that Democrats really don't need to worry about Whites here with a good ground game and high turnout (I would also independently argue that many White Arizonans are similarly-minded to the southern Whites; there's a reason AZ is under the CRA).

The solid minority in Arizona is the Latino community, which may go to Obama by a factor of 2-to-1 and makes up 30% of the state. The solid minority in Georgia is the Black community, which will hand Obama their votes by a factor of 9-to-1 and also makes up 30% of the state. The Black population in Georgia is also growing - in conjunction with the Latino population - while Whites are shrinking. Another equal comparison among the states is the number of Latinos who are ineligible to vote: roughly 475,000 each, which obviously impacts Arizona's ability to flip more than Georgia's, seeing as it's a greater share of the population.

Georgia could be majority-minority (with at least 2/3 of minorities being Black) by 2020. Existing calculations I've seen by the state Democratic Party show that Georgia Democrats already have a 10% advantage among registered voters (based on primary participation and demographic analysis), but are always outperformed by Republican turnout. Maybe the campaign sees AZ as a state that needs more "push" to ultimately trend D than GA will, but I would think that the campaign would rather be concerned with which state would be easier to flip this cycle, which I still maintain should have been Georgia.

[Politico]

I'm inclined to say that any state where he is currently 55% and below could POSSIBLY, however unlikely, go to Romney when the dust settles. Vermont, Rhode Island, Hawaii and DC are the only ironclad EVs. New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts are 99.9% likely to go to Obama. Everything else is anywhere between 0-99%.

[Tender Branson]

Polls taken over half a year are meaningless.

Especially Gallup, which predicted a GOP+15 win in 2010, when the actual Senate/House result was just GOP+6 ...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2010_generic_congressional_vote-2171.html

[President von Cat]

I'm inclined to say that any state where he is currently 55% and below could POSSIBLY, however unlikely, go to Romney when the dust settles. Vermont, Rhode Island, Hawaii and DC are the only ironclad EVs. New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts are 99.9% likely to go to Obama. Everything else is anywhere between 0-99%.

So Romney has a 0-99% chance of winning Ohio, Virginia, etc. Got it. Thanks for that very deep analysis.

[Politico]

I'm inclined to say that any state where he is currently 55% and below could POSSIBLY, however unlikely, go to Romney when the dust settles. Vermont, Rhode Island, Hawaii and DC are the only ironclad EVs. New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts are 99.9% likely to go to Obama. Everything else is anywhere between 0-99%.

So Romney has a 0-99% chance of winning Ohio, Virginia, etc. Got it. Thanks for that very deep analysis.

No, Obama has a 0-99% chance of winning every state other than the aforementioned. Obviously Obama has a 0% chance of winning Utah, for example, just as Romney has a 0% chance of winning Hawaii.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

It would be interesting to see Romney favorables in some of these Southern states.

[old timey villain]

Elasticity. Southern whites give the GOP 50% of the vote automatically.

In most southern states that is the case, and currently the situation in Georgia. Arizona and Georgia have approximately the same % of Whites (57-59).

The difference between Georgia and Arizona, however, is that Democrats really don't need to worry about Whites here with a good ground game and high turnout (I would also independently argue that many White Arizonans are similarly-minded to the southern Whites; there's a reason AZ is under the CRA).

The solid minority in Arizona is the Latino community, which may go to Obama by a factor of 2-to-1 and makes up 30% of the state. The solid minority in Georgia is the Black community, which will hand Obama their votes by a factor of 9-to-1 and also makes up 30% of the state. The Black population in Georgia is also growing - in conjunction with the Latino population - while Whites are shrinking. Another equal comparison among the states is the number of Latinos who are ineligible to vote: roughly 475,000 each, which obviously impacts Arizona's ability to flip more than Georgia's, seeing as it's a greater share of the population.

Georgia could be majority-minority (with at least 2/3 of minorities being Black) by 2020. Existing calculations I've seen by the state Democratic Party show that Georgia Democrats already have a 10% advantage among registered voters (based on primary participation and demographic analysis), but are always outperformed by Republican turnout. Maybe the campaign sees AZ as a state that needs more "push" to ultimately trend D than GA will, but I would think that the campaign would rather be concerned with which state would be easier to flip this cycle, which I still maintain should have been Georgia.

This is all true, but Dems still do need to do a little better with whites in Georgia. Obama won 23% of whites and lost by 5 points. With a strong minority turnout and Dems getting close to 30% of whites, then the state could be really competitive.