Romney picks Paul Ryan as his running mate **official thread**

[J. J.]

Do you think this is a better candidate than Palin?

Yes.  He basically has more experience than Obama had, and a greater leadership role in the House.  Considered to have "gravitas."  Younger.  Holds the right while Romney tries for the center.

Will bring the focus on the economy.

Probably does help out in WI, IA and OH.  May help out in the South (VA, NC).

Problems are with seniors and Hispanics.  Problems with FL, CO, NV, NM, even AZ.  Little help in the Northeast.

A potentially good choice, but not a great one.

[J. J.]

First, in terms of Electoral Votes, this has been the best Republican pick since 1980.  That is not saying much.  There were better VP candidates strictly in terms of maximizing Electoral Votes.  

In terms of overall picks, it is better than the Democratic picks in 1984, 1988, and about the same as 1992, 2004, and even 1976.  It is not a bad pick, but not a stellar one, in general terms.

Second, it does solidify the right behind Romney, so I would not be worried about the base.  

Third, it does hit Obama on the worse aspect of his presidency, the economy.  Ryan helps make this campaign about the economy.  

In this regard, the Reagan question, "Are you better off than you were four years ago," comes into play.  Possibly excepting 2000, since 1976 the party in the White House that could answer yes has retained the presidency.

The drift to a more free market stand, with Ryan being a fan of Atlas Shrugged, could signal a realignment, if it is successful.

[J. J.]

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No, it's a repeat of McCain.

No, not at all.

[J. J.]

First, in terms of Electoral Votes, this has been the best Republican pick since 1980.  That is not saying much.  There were better VP candidates strictly in terms of maximizing Electoral Votes.  

Third, it does hit Obama on the worse aspect of his presidency, the economy.  Ryan helps make this campaign about the economy.  

1. Those EVs aren't swing states, and even then it's not clear if Romney/Ryan can win NH or WI.

2. No, he makes it about the Ryan plan.

1.  I think Romney how has a much better shot at IA and WI, because of Ryan.  Possibly OH and NH as well.

2.  The difference is:  "Obama has failed, economically, after four years; we're offering something new."  It also is a more optimistic plan, which sells.

[J. J.]

It is interesting.  A week ago all the buzz was about Ryan getting on the ticket, what a terrible choice he was, and if he'd be dropped.

In the past week, all the buzz has been about Biden being dropped from the ticket, what a terrible choice he is.

Ryan is out campaigning and Biden is getting a time out in Delaware. 

A week bis an eternity in politics.

[J. J.]

all the buzz has been about Biden being dropped from the ticket, what a terrible choice he is.

Um, no.

Ah, yes.  There is even a thread on it.

[J. J.]

all the buzz has been about Biden being dropped from the ticket, what a terrible choice he is.

Um, no.

Ah, yes.  There is even a thread on it.

Of course, there is no more clear indication that something is trending in US politics than someone opening a thread about it on Atlas Forum.

Eat our dust Drudge!

We've been hearing about it all week.  I'm not saying it will be happening, but obviously that has been the story.

[J. J.]

Oh, and here:  http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/political-animal-a/2012_08/so_much_easier_to_spin_in_fact039297.php

I don't expect this to happen, but it has been the story of the week.

[J. J.]

Top sources in J.J.-land: threads made by Winfield/Politico and Washington Monthly.

Actually, if you had read the link, you would see that it has been in the news this week.  

Now, is it likely to happen?  No.  Has it taken the story from how terrible Ryan was suppose to be to showing how terrible Biden is?  Yes.