Who do you think will win Wisconsin?

[JFK-Democrat]

Obama will win Wisconsin by 3-4%.

[krazen1211]

The people of Wisconsin will proudly support a Wisconsin Republican. That's how 28 year old Paul Ryan stomped his opponent 57-43 in a D+2 open seat in 1998.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Obama 53
Romney 46

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

The people of Wisconsin will proudly support a Wisconsin Republican. That's how 28 year old Paul Ryan stomped his opponent 57-43 in a D+2 open seat in 1998.

Will people stop with this BS about just having someone from a state guarantees it will go of your party. It didn't work in 2004, it didn't work in 1996, it didn't work in 1988, 1972, or 1968. You'll get a bump of 2 points, if any at all. The Washington Post says you probably wont even get a bump.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

As we all know, Al Gore was elected in part due to a strong margin of victory in Tennessee.

[pbrower2a]

Do VP's carry their states? The Favorite Son advantage is about 10% for the President -- win or lose- and it is usually reversed in all but max-out situations.  The VP nominee matters far less. Lloyd Bentsen, who had firmer ties to Texas than did George H W Bush,   did not help Mike Dukakis.

Let's go back a while to see whether a VP nominee could have made a difference:

YEAR      nominee     state     Won state?   DIMAD*?                        

2008      Biden     (D)      DE        Y                   N
2008      Palin      (R)      AS         Y                   N

2004      Cheney  (R)      WY       Y                   N
2004      Edwards (D)     NC       N                   Y

2000      Cheney  (R)      WY       Y                   N
2000      Lieberman (D)   CT       Y                   N

1996      Gore (D)            TN       Y                   N
1996      Kemp (R)           NY       N                   N

1992      Gore  (D)           TN       Y                   N
1992      Quayle (R)         IN       Y                   N

1988      Quayle  (R)        IN       Y                   N
1988      Bentsen (D)       TX       N                  N

1984      Bush (R)            CT       Y                   N
1984      Ferraro (D)        NY       N                  N

1980      Bush  (R)           CT       Y                   N
1980      Mondale (D)      MN      Y                   N

1976      Mondale (D)       MN     Y                   N
1976      Dole (R)              KS     Y                   N
*DIMAD -- Did It Make A Difference?

...the VP choice is a poor way of flipping a state. If I went back to 1968 I would show that Spiro Agnew lost in Maryland despite an electoral blowout. The one that seems to make a difference was one who lost his state -- Edwards (Kerry would have won with it).

[Donerail]

2008      Palin      (R)      AS

Sarah Palin is not from American Samoa.

[milhouse24]

The people of Wisconsin will proudly support a Wisconsin Republican. That's how 28 year old Paul Ryan stomped his opponent 57-43 in a D+2 open seat in 1998.

Will people stop with this BS about just having someone from a state guarantees it will go of your party. It didn't work in 2004, it didn't work in 1996, it didn't work in 1988, 1972, or 1968. You'll get a bump of 2 points, if any at all. The Washington Post says you probably wont even get a bump.

the GOP is growing in Wisconsin.  How do you explain Scott Walker's popularity as a Republican?

Wisconsin voters will have similar affection for Paul Ryan, who is just as conservative as Scott Walker. 

Its guaranteed Romney/Ryan will win Wisconsin.

[Donerail]

The people of Wisconsin will proudly support a Wisconsin Republican. That's how 28 year old Paul Ryan stomped his opponent 57-43 in a D+2 open seat in 1998.

Will people stop with this BS about just having someone from a state guarantees it will go of your party. It didn't work in 2004, it didn't work in 1996, it didn't work in 1988, 1972, or 1968. You'll get a bump of 2 points, if any at all. The Washington Post says you probably wont even get a bump.

the GOP is growing in Wisconsin.  How do you explain Scott Walker's popularity as a Republican?

Wisconsin voters will have similar affection for Paul Ryan, who is just as conservative as Scott Walker. 

Its guaranteed Romney/Ryan will win Wisconsin.

Perhaps a personal thing and his record? Using your logic...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

The people of Wisconsin will proudly support a Wisconsin Republican. That's how 28 year old Paul Ryan stomped his opponent 57-43 in a D+2 open seat in 1998.

Will people stop with this BS about just having someone from a state guarantees it will go of your party. It didn't work in 2004, it didn't work in 1996, it didn't work in 1988, 1972, or 1968. You'll get a bump of 2 points, if any at all. The Washington Post says you probably wont even get a bump.

the GOP is growing in Wisconsin.  How do you explain Scott Walker's popularity as a Republican?

Wisconsin voters will have similar affection for Paul Ryan, who is just as conservative as Scott Walker. 

Its guaranteed Romney/Ryan will win Wisconsin.

Scott Walker's not popular. Anyone can win when you autspend your opponent 8-1. And the Democrats had no reason to recall him. So the voters had no reason to boot him from office. RRs not gonna win Wisconsin milhouse. Now GET OVER IT.

[milhouse24]

The people of Wisconsin will proudly support a Wisconsin Republican. That's how 28 year old Paul Ryan stomped his opponent 57-43 in a D+2 open seat in 1998.

Will people stop with this BS about just having someone from a state guarantees it will go of your party. It didn't work in 2004, it didn't work in 1996, it didn't work in 1988, 1972, or 1968. You'll get a bump of 2 points, if any at all. The Washington Post says you probably wont even get a bump.

the GOP is growing in Wisconsin.  How do you explain Scott Walker's popularity as a Republican?

Wisconsin voters will have similar affection for Paul Ryan, who is just as conservative as Scott Walker. 

Its guaranteed Romney/Ryan will win Wisconsin.

Perhaps a personal thing and his record? Using your logic...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I thought Scott Walker won re-election?  He's the most anti-obama politician out there. 

[Donerail]

The people of Wisconsin will proudly support a Wisconsin Republican. That's how 28 year old Paul Ryan stomped his opponent 57-43 in a D+2 open seat in 1998.

Will people stop with this BS about just having someone from a state guarantees it will go of your party. It didn't work in 2004, it didn't work in 1996, it didn't work in 1988, 1972, or 1968. You'll get a bump of 2 points, if any at all. The Washington Post says you probably wont even get a bump.

the GOP is growing in Wisconsin.  How do you explain Scott Walker's popularity as a Republican?

Wisconsin voters will have similar affection for Paul Ryan, who is just as conservative as Scott Walker. 

Its guaranteed Romney/Ryan will win Wisconsin.

Perhaps a personal thing and his record? Using your logic...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I thought Scott Walker won re-election?  He's the most anti-obama politician out there. 

I'm saying that just because a politician of one party is popular in a state does not mean that all members of that party are popular, and certainly not a lock for election.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The only part of his district where Ryan has much of a personal following is his hometown of Janesville. The rest of his district votes Republican anyway except for Kenosha and Racine where he doesn't seem to have much of a personal following but still overperforms because the Democrats only run weak unfunded opponents against him, and the rest of the state knows as much about him as the rest of the country does. The numbers in Janesville will be interesting (66% Obama in 2008 by the way), but it's not big enough to swing the state unless it's as close as 2004, and Romney's going to have make serious movement to get Wisconsin that close.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Its guaranteed Romney/Ryan will win Wisconsin.

[useful idiot]

Romney wins Wisconsin and the election. 

Wisconsin is trending Republicans with Scott Walker, etc.  (this is not like NC trending republican in 2004). 

Romney should win Florida easily (the scare tactics won't work) and Ohio, Virginia, Iowa. 

Its over for Obama.  The numbers don't lie, and Romney will have the votes in Wisconsin. 

What numbers? Are you on crack? If the numbers today were the electoral results, Romney would still lose big in the electoral college. The RCP average has him losing nationally by 5 points, as opposed to the 7 points McCain lost by (consistent with Obama losing two or three 2008 states).

Romney is in bad shape, and everyone knows it.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I think Biden and Palin may have helped a couple of points in their home states, but it helped that they had statewide office in a small state.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Again, if the election were today, Obama.  In November, not so sure.

[krazen1211]

The people of Wisconsin will proudly support a Wisconsin Republican. That's how 28 year old Paul Ryan stomped his opponent 57-43 in a D+2 open seat in 1998.

Will people stop with this BS about just having someone from a state guarantees it will go of your party. It didn't work in 2004, it didn't work in 1996, it didn't work in 1988, 1972, or 1968. You'll get a bump of 2 points, if any at all. The Washington Post says you probably wont even get a bump.

Actually, given that North Carolina did not give President George W Bush an increased share of the vote in 2004, compared to 2000, it certainly worked at doing something.

The Wisconsin GOP figured out in 2010/2011/2012 what it could not do in 2000/2004's close elections; namely, generate the max number of votes in Waukesha. They will use those lessons.

[Stranger in a strange land]

I think Biden and Palin may have helped a couple of points in their home states, but it helped that they had statewide office in a small state.

Yeah, but not by much:


Delaware had been trending Democratic for a while, and Biden as VP only amplified the trend. Palin put a big damper on Alaska's swing towards Obama (the other mountain west states swung towards Obama by much bigger margins, with the curious exception of Wyoming).

The last time a VP made a big enough difference to swing their home state was probably 1996.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Wyoming was because of a late campaign stop, much like Cheney's one visit made Hawaii competitive in 2004.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I don't see Romney winning Wisconsin.

[Minnesota Mike]

Watch to see the ad spending in Wisconsin. So far the campaigns have spent next to nothing and the Super Pacs not a whole lot more. If Ryan truly puts Wisconsin in play both sides will have to up their ad spending.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/hotline/ad-spending-in-presidential-battleground-states-20120620

[solarstorm]

Do VP's carry their states? The Favorite Son advantage is about 10% for the President -- win or lose- and it is usually reversed in all but max-out situations.  The VP nominee matters far less. Lloyd Bentsen, who had firmer ties to Texas than did George H W Bush,   did not help Mike Dukakis.

Let's go back a while to see whether a VP nominee could have made a difference:

YEAR      nominee     state     Won state?   DIMAD*?                       

2008      Biden     (D)      DE        Y                   N
2008      Palin      (R)      AS         Y                   N

2004      Cheney  (R)      WY       Y                   N
2004      Edwards (D)     NC       N                   Y

2000      Cheney  (R)      WY       Y                   N
2000      Lieberman (D)   CT       Y                   N

1996      Gore (D)            TN       Y                   N
1996      Kemp (R)           NY       N                   N

1992      Gore  (D)           TN       Y                   N
1992      Quayle (R)         IN       Y                   N

1988      Quayle  (R)        IN       Y                   N
1988      Bentsen (D)       TX       N                  N

1984      Bush (R)            CT       Y                   N
1984      Ferraro (D)        NY       N                  N

1980      Bush  (R)           CT       Y                   N
1980      Mondale (D)      MN      Y                   N

1976      Mondale (D)       MN     Y                   N
1976      Dole (R)              KS     Y                   N
*DIMAD -- Did It Make A Difference?

...the VP choice is a poor way of flipping a state. If I went back to 1968 I would show that Spiro Agnew lost in Maryland despite an electoral blowout. The one that seems to make a difference was one who lost his state -- Edwards (Kerry would have won with it).

1. Mrs. Palin is from Alaska, not from American Samoa.

2. Bush's home state was and is Texas.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I can't imagine either ticket winning. Both a second Obama term and a Romney Presidency seem hopelessly unrealistic. The second one is easier to imagine than the first, and besides I would rather see the second than the first, so I voted Romney/Ryan, but I can understand claiming a second Obama term is likelier as well.

I have little idea what would happen in a second Obama term, but I can see how we'd get there. I have a somewhat clearer (if, to me, horrific) idea of a Romney presidency, but I can't see how we'd get there.