Who do you think will win Colorado?

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

I'd probably give Romney a slight edge right now, but my gut feeling is that it will eventually go to Obama again by a narrow margin.

[Rhodie]

Obama. Its still trending Democratic, with them managing to do relatively well in Colorado in the mid-terms, in comparison to some other states. It'll be close, but Obama will probably snatch a win to to the young and hispanics making up the difference.

[5280]

If Romney can get the turnout for the base much higher than the hispanics, then it would be close. He would need Rubio to counter Obama. The best scenario would be to reverse the voting trends.

Sadly, there's alot of gullible Obama zombies in Denver unfortunately.

[Supersonic]

Obama, if the race was held right now.

Romney, if he can get his act together, in November.

Either way Colorado will be an extremely close state.

[Person Man]

Ehhh...McCain was consistently winning here this time last year. We'll see what happens. The only way Obama loses is that if Wyoming OFA and Colorado State Dems lose. I know the OFA guys in Wyoming and Colorado. They're younger than me and their futures depend on at least not losing Colorado if Obama wins and not losing badly if Obama loses.

[Devils30]

The ny times poll has 38% above age 65 whereas 13% are in the 2008 exit polls. In other words, the poll was a very far outlier. I think Obama is probably up by about 4 there now.

[mondale84]

I think Obama will win and it probably won't even be that close: 50-47 or 51-46.

[Person Man]

That's what I think too. I think if Colorado isn't the state that puts someone over the edge, it will be the next state closest to the national average....unless we have the new Florida Dems or Cali GOP.

[Tender Branson]

The ny times poll has 38% above age 65 whereas 13% are in the 2008 exit polls. In other words, the poll was a very far outlier. I think Obama is probably up by about 4 there now.

No, those numbers are the unweighted ones. It's pretty normal that olds are way more likely to answer the phone as they are mostly at home, while the youngs have to work/study. Therefore the unweighted numbers are much higher than the weighted ones.

The release doesn't give weighted age numbers.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Depends on what happens between now and the election.  While Obama will probably run very strong among Latinos, Romney will probably offset those margins with his Mormon support.  Same story in Nevada too.
But, if the election were today, I would probably say President Obama carries it.  Which reminds me: does anyone out there think the shooting in Aurora is affecting the polls out there?

[All Along The Watchtower]

Depends on what happens between now and the election.  While Obama will probably run very strong among Latinos, Romney will probably offset those margins with his Mormon support.  Same story in Nevada too.
But, if the election were today, I would probably say President Obama carries it.  Which reminds me: does anyone out there think the shooting in Aurora is affecting the polls out there?

Colorado's Mormon population isn't as big as the Latino population.

[Stranger in a strange land]

If Tea Party darling Ken Buck couldn't pull it out in the best year for Republicans in living memory, I don't think Romney can either.

[mondale84]

Depends on what happens between now and the election.  While Obama will probably run very strong among Latinos, Romney will probably offset those margins with his Mormon support.  Same story in Nevada too.
But, if the election were today, I would probably say President Obama carries it.  Which reminds me: does anyone out there think the shooting in Aurora is affecting the polls out there?

Colorado's Mormon population isn't as big as the Latino population.

Also, Mormons always turn out in impressive numbers and they already vote overwhelmingly Republican.

If Tea Party darling Ken Buck couldn't pull it out in the best year for Republicans in living memory, I don't think Romney can either.

^^^^^This.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

If Tea Party darling Ken Buck couldn't pull it out in the best year for Republicans in living memory, I don't think Romney can either.

Romney is (or was, or may become) a far better fit for Colorado independents than Ken Buck.

[All Along The Watchtower]

If Tea Party darling Ken Buck couldn't pull it out in the best year for Republicans in living memory, I don't think Romney can either.

Romney is (or was, or may become) a far better fit for Colorado independents than Ken Buck.

Fair enough, but he also needs to drive up the GOP base.

[mondale84]

If Tea Party darling Ken Buck couldn't pull it out in the best year for Republicans in living memory, I don't think Romney can either.

Romney is (or was, or may become) a far better fit for Colorado independents than Ken Buck.

Fair enough, but he also needs to drive up the GOP base.

Yeah and this isn't 2010...

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

If Tea Party darling Ken Buck couldn't pull it out in the best year for Republicans in living memory, I don't think Romney can either.

Romney is (or was, or may become) a far better fit for Colorado independents than Ken Buck.

Fair enough, but he also needs to drive up the GOP base.

Romney is (or was, or may become) also a better fit for Colorado Republicans than Ken Buck.

That's the beauty of Romney.
If he'll manage to do both at the same time is very much up for debate, though.

[Smash255]

If Tea Party darling Ken Buck couldn't pull it out in the best year for Republicans in living memory, I don't think Romney can either.

Romney is (or was, or may become) a far better fit for Colorado independents than Ken Buck.

The 2002 version?  Certainly.  The right wing 2012 version?  No

[California8429]

Obama. Could be by a hair, could be by6 or 7 points.

[morgieb]

Obama. Apart from the Quinnipac outlier, he's still got a narrow lead.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

If Tea Party darling Ken Buck couldn't pull it out in the best year for Republicans in living memory, I don't think Romney can either.

Romney is (or was, or may become) a far better fit for Colorado independents than Ken Buck.

Exactly.  And even if the Mormon population isn't as big as the Latino population, it still will go a long way for Romney to offset Obama's margins with the Latinos.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Exactly.  And even if the Mormon population isn't as big as the Latino population, it still will go a long way for Romney to offset Obama's margins with the Latinos.

That isn't how these things work.

[Ebowed]

If Tea Party darling Ken Buck couldn't pull it out in the best year for Republicans in living memory, I don't think Romney can either.

Romney is (or was, or may become) a far better fit for Colorado independents than Ken Buck.

Exactly.  And even if the Mormon population isn't as big as the Latino population, it still will go a long way for Romney to offset Obama's margins with the Latinos.

Latter Day Saint / Mormon – 2%

Hispanics and Latinos of any race made up 20.7% of the population.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colorado#Demographics