Venezuelan Presidential Election 2012

[Bacon King]

Oh hey, didn't notice this election had a thread until now!

I've been following it fairly closely; one of my professors is the Director of the Americas Program at the Carter Center who flew down there a few weeks ago and will be back down to lead the Carter Center's "informal" election monitoring.

The polls have been all over the place and are completely unreliable. IIRC over the campaign they've shown everything from a 20% lead for Chavez to a 10% lead for Capriles, so don't expect them to tell you much of anything. For what it's worth, the pollster who did the best in 2006 (Datanalisis) is currently showing 49% for Chavez, 39% for Capriles, with 10% undecided.

Public servants are afraid of voting against him because the electronic voting system they'll use is unreliable.

The electronic system is actually completely reliable and anonymous; independent NGOs and even the opposition itself have acknowledged the system is technically sound. You have to have a valid ID and provide a matching fingerprint for the scanner in order to vote, so there's no risk of "graveyard turnout" or other vote stuffing. The machine's recorded tally of votes is randomized after every voter, so there's no way to connect the fingerprints to the voters. Also, once someone votes, the machine prints a receipt with their selected candidate's name on it, which the voter then places into a secure ballot box so there's paper verification for election officials and other observers to ensure the machines are accurate. Honestly, it's very sound (even more so than most voting machines in the US).

The voting machines themselves are entirely anonymous, but due to the fact that the identity verification stuff is part of the same machine as the voting screen, they have the appearance of not being anonymous at all- I'd guess this design might easily be an entirely intentional form of intimidation. I do hope the opposition is educating their supporters who are at risk of possible retribution that they have nothing to fear.

Without shenanigans it would have been truly too close to call. Of course, given the degree of administrative control he exercises, Capriles Radonski would, probably need at least, 55% of the actual votes cast to win.

Although Chavez's record isn't exactly spotless, I think his ability to pull shenanigans here are actually fairly limited. For the first time ever, the opposition has enough manpower and coordination to cover the entire country with poll monitors (117,000 poll monitors to cover Venezuela's 14,000 voting stations), who will make sure the official poll workers aren't doing anything illegal; they'll do an independent nation-wide tally of both the initial results as well as the paper count once the polls close. Also, monitors from UNASUR will be serving as official international observers. If there's any tampering with the results, it'll become public knowledge immediately- and the government is well aware of that, so I'm sure they'll be treading lightly.

The only thing that really worries me is the recent announcement from Venezuela's military leadership that they'll be actively "patrolling" the elections with 139,000 soldiers. I'm not sure what exactly the "patrolling" entails, but that's enough troops to station an entire platoon outside of every voting site in the country, with plenty more left over. I'm worried there could be some massive voter intimidation if every Venezuelan has to pass through an armed military checkpoint to get to the voting booth. Let's hope that's not the case, though.

At any rate, whatever happens, definitely hoping for a Capriles victory here next week.

[Bacon King]

I hardly love Chavez, but obviously a left-wing/populist "authoritarian" regime is better than a right-wing/neoliberal authoritarian regime.

It's worth noting that Capriles, if elected, would still have to get along with a National Assembly that's 58% Chavista.

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[Bacon King]

I don't have anything to add to the excellent post of Lief's above (who has, amusingly, ninja'd my posts like four times today and made the exact point I was trying to make far more quickly, coherently, and succinctly), so I'll just support it with some statistics! Courtesy of the UN, mostly.

Rate of Poverty in Venezuela

2002: 48.6% (extreme poverty at 22.2%)
2010: 27.8% (extreme poverty at 10.7%)

Venezuelan GDP in current dollars

1999: $90 billion
2011: $300 billion

Venezuelan GINI coefficient

2002: 0.49
2012: 0.39

(the USA has been like 0.44 to 0.46 in this time period; i.e., in the last decade, the equality of Venezuela's income distribution actually surpassed that of the United States)

Venezuela's International Reserves

1998: $14.9 billion
2010: $64.4 billion

Increase in Venezuelan government's spending on universities between 1999 and 2011: 814%


I could go on, but I'm sure you all get the point. I don't like Chavez's paternalistic streak, how rabid some of his supporters can get, or his erratic attitude towards foreign policy, but he's honestly done a ton of good for the people of Venezuela.

As for this election, I think it would actually be better for Venezuela if Chavez didn't win next week, because it would ironically ensure that the good work he's done remains. If Capriles is elected, he'll either govern as a leftist or he'll get nothing accomplished and end up widely hated and almost certainly recalled. Even in the worst case scenario, Venezuela at least establishes a precedent of peaceful exchange of power without having Chavez's work undone.

If Chavez is reelected, however, and he dies in the first four years of his term, then Venezuela's Bolivaran Constitution requires a new Presidential election be held within thirty days of his death. The rushed preparation for such an election would be madness, and I fear the MSUV could easily implode while trying to agree on a successor. If their infighting gets bad enough, the Venezuelan military would probably step in, and then that'd just screw everything up.

But yeah, that's my two cents on the election and why I support Capriles. I just wanted to assure you, Tweed, that I am not, nor have I ever, been a believer in Chris Dodd.

[Bacon King]

Are there any pro-democracy left-wingers in Venezuela? If not, then Radonski.

Assuming you don't consider Chavez to be pro-democracy, it's worth point out that MUD (the anti-Chavez coalition that nominated Capriles Radonski) includes quite a few leftist groups, including social democrats, marxists, greens, and even a Chavista splinter group that has a couple of seats in Parliament.

There's also four minor candidates running and some of their party's names sound a bit leftist, but they're all non-factors in this two man race.

[Bacon King]

I think what this thread really needs, is a few more lovable Chavez photos. (Hey, it's better than diverging into an argument on Pinochet!)

     

Also, in the interests of fairness and equal opportunity:

[Bacon King]

I think what this thread really needs, is a few more lovable Chavez photos. (Hey, it's better than diverging into an argument on Pinochet!)

Does "lovable" mean "goofy" in your idiolect?

I do find goofy photos to be adorable, indeed, especially when it's someone who normally projects a personality you wouldn't expect it from (see also, for example, all those "Newt Gingrich playing with animals" pictures; they were hilarious and awesome).

PS, I love the word "idiolect" and if you don't mind I'd like to appropriate it and try to work it into everyday conversation.

[Bacon King]

Apparently there are no legal provisions for a recount. Oh dear.

Not as much of a problem as it could be, because an automatic recount (counting the paper reciepts and comparing against the voting machine's tally) is part of the election night procedure.

[Bacon King]

For an interesting comparison with the above, here's a map of the municipalities that Capriles visited over the course of the campaign:

[Bacon King]

Not to interrupt Pinochet chat (Pinochat?) again, but here's swing and trend maps I made comparing 2006 and 2012:

[Bacon King]

What the heck is up with that one part of Venezuela that decided to like Chavez more?

Chavez's opponent in 2006 was Zulia's governor, so a homestate effect (which was no doubt intensified by Maracaibo's traditional rivalry with Caracas) from the last election that wasn't present in this one.