Venezuelan Presidential Election 2012 (user search)
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Author Topic: Venezuelan Presidential Election 2012  (Read 25436 times)
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


« on: August 19, 2012, 03:33:23 AM »

As long as it's Chavists versus American-Allied Ancien Regime Anti-Chavists, Chavists are certain to win elections in Venezuela on the strength of the opposition's horribleness alone. They'll have to (and have started to) move on to something more describable as Postchavist.
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


« Reply #1 on: October 08, 2012, 01:45:21 PM »

I'm not a fan of the man, but if he was going to do away with the democratic process (or turn it into a complete sham) then he'd have done so years ago.
If there is any one politician in the world of whom that's true, it's Chavez.
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


« Reply #2 on: October 08, 2012, 03:01:26 PM »

the main reason people want to deduce Chavez is a despot is because he is an egomaniac with a flair for the dramatic
Oh yes. And how.

It's not the only reason, though. Venezuela had long been, not just a fairly US-dependent but also a culturally fairly northerly-oriented country (I mean, they play baseball there. And their football team sucked so hard for so long that they used to play in the North American qualifiers because they couldn't compete with the big boys from the rest of South America.) Some of the same is also true of Colombia (which remains in US Clutches). There are also fairly sizable Venezuelan and Colombian immigrant communities in the US, and they're relatively White and legal.
But it's not just a US orientation, it's a Caribbean orientation as well (Capriles' family is from Curacao originally)... which the US also considers its own backyard, of course, but more to the point Cuba, too, is going to be a far more directly relevant issue in Venezuela than in Chile.

And then there's the oil, of course. And the way Chavez at times threw around oil money to buy influence, making him what you'd call a Stategic Adversary of the USA.

And then there's also the factor of Chavez starting the trend with Morales, Correa, Humala all coming later and inspired by Chavism.



Of course, there's absolutely nothing new in leftish populists coming to power on anti American rhetoric in Latin America. A lot of caudillos that were later perfectly tame internationally but not so much at home started out that way. Including one Fulgencio Baptista. It's the staying that way that assures Hugo his place in the history book... and I, for one, think we have mostly the bunglers in the Bush admin and the 2002 coup to thank for it. Credit where it belongs.
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


« Reply #3 on: October 08, 2012, 03:02:02 PM »

Chavez's 2000 and 2006 challengers were from Zulia. Capriles isn't.

There's that factor, but Zulia is/was an opposition stronghold at other levels: legislative (2010), referendums (2007 and 2009).
Remind me... are the low margins in the far south part of the historical pattern?
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


« Reply #4 on: October 08, 2012, 03:30:54 PM »

That's by municipality, right? Incredible. Here's Caracas by district.

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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


« Reply #5 on: October 08, 2012, 03:44:02 PM »

Chavez's 2000 and 2006 challengers were from Zulia. Capriles isn't.

There's that factor, but Zulia is/was an opposition stronghold at other levels: legislative (2010), referendums (2007 and 2009).
Remind me... are the low margins in the far south part of the historical pattern?

If you mean the Chavista margins in Amazonas, no, that's actually another interesting thing which appeared in 2010. Amazonas used to be one of the strongest Chavista states, but the PSUV did poorly there in 2010 (the PPT won 41%) and it seems like Chavez did poorly there again this year.
I meant Amazonas and Bolivar. Thanks!
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