Venezuelan Presidential Election 2012

[Velasco]

The last Parliamentary election was a tie between PSUV (Socialist Unified Party of Venezuela, Chavista) and MUD (Democratic Unity, Oposition). Venezuela must be the most polarized country of the world and everything turns around Chávez. There's no middle way: you love him or you hate him. This not only occurs in Venezuela: in my country certain people in the left have him mythologized. I'm still wondering what's the "XXI Century Socialism". In conclusion: I don't understand anything. Chávez would be the probable winner, of course.

[Velasco]

The Democratic Unity Roundtable (MUD) is very heterogeneous. Together with the old regime parties, AD and COPEI, there are a lot of parties covering all the political spectrum. According with the results of the last legislative election the main parties are:

A New Era (officially center-left or Third Way), the party of the 2006 oposition candidate, Manuel Rosales, who was mayor of Maracaibo and Governor of Zulia. Rosales sought asylum in Peru in 2009 after being accused of missing public funds. He alleged that he was object of a political persecution. Also, he signed the Carmona decree, during the 2002 coup attent, "in a moment of confusion", according with his words.

Justice First, the Capriles party. Officially is centrist and humanist, also social liberal and adscribed to the Christian Democrat Organization of America. The English Wiki says that is a center-right party.

Democratic Alliance, the center-left party of the ancien regime, with Carlos Andrés Pérez (CAP) as starring character, member of the Socialist International.

COPEI-People's Party, the traditional christian democrat party of Venezuela. Also member of that christian-dem Amerian organization and of the Centrist Democrat International.

Patria Para Todos (Fatherland for All), social democrat. The party joined the oposition because of disagreements with the officialist PSUV.

Also Project Venezuela (social christian), Podemos (We Can, social democrat, another party that refused to join PSUV), the liberal-conservative MIN, the marxist-leninist Red Flag, the socialist MAS (Movement Towards Socialism), the party of Teodoro Petkoff, the old left-wing leader who supported Chávez in the past...

It seems a coalition of the ancient regime establishment parties together with the new oposition parties and Chavist dissidents, i.e., an all-together-against-Chávez type of coalition.

[Velasco]

The turnout in the five polling places existing in Spain was around 70%, says the Venezuelan Embassy.

[Velasco]

Leakage from the National Electoral Council: Chávez won by 1 million of votes. Dissapointment at Capriles' HQs.

[Velasco]

Tibisay Lucena, the President of the Nat. Electoral Council says that Chávez got 54.4% of the vote and Capriles 44%. 90% counted. Turnout 81%.

There will be no next time for some 20 years I'm afraid.

Chávez won't last 20 years and he has not a sucessor. Capriles would be perfectly the next president.

[Velasco]

I don't love Pinochet, but I'm fully willing to acknowledge him the least bad of several evils in the time period when he took power, though by the time he stepped down, he no longer carried that honor.

"Least bad of several evils" is not something that describes Chavez. Obviously, Pinochet isn't a model for governance, but if we look on it from a consequentialist and counterfactual angle, we can say that for all his personal failings (which are too long to be described here), Pinochet's coup had better outcomes than the alternatives, making the world somewhat better than it otherwise would have been.

I love contrafactual History, you can imagine what you want to justify the unjustifiable. So terrible crimes are "personal failings", in a contrafactual world, I guess.