Does Paul Ryan increase enthusiasm/GOTV for Romney or Obama or both?

[milhouse24]

As many people have said, this is a rather boring election with weakened candidates on both parties generating little excitement among the population. 

But similar to when Palin was first introduced, does Paul Ryan provide a spark of enthusiasm and excitement to Conservatives and Independents?  Can Paul rally the GOTV that Romney may have been lacking to defeat Obama?

Conversely, can democrats cast Paul Ryan as a scary enough candidate to excite its lackluster base, and energize independents?  It should be easy labeling Paul Ryan as an extremist, but would it be enough to horrify liberal activists? 

The most comparable boogeyman would be equating Paul Ryan to Newt Gingrich as HORs. 

But it might not stick image-wise as Newt is old, fat, and ugly. 

Paul Ryan may be enough to energize the Tea Partiers who came out in droves for the 2010 midterm elections.  It will be imperative for Romney to maintain and maximize the momentum from 2010 into 2012, for him to have any chance at winning.  Picking Paul effectively solidifies the Tea Party enthusiasm from 2 years ago. 

[Wisconsin+17]

Well, I'd be the best person to ask.

Was I thrilled with Palin? Absolutely. I wasn't thrilled with McCain, but he was good enough to support.

Now, it feels different for me. Romney is worse than McCain, I didn't support Romney then, and I'm certainly not going to now.

Ryan, I'm not terribly enthused. Yet, I loved, loved, loved, loved, Palin.

[ajb]

What seems curious to me about the Ryan pick is that, presumably, of all the components of the Republican coalition, it was the people focused on economic issues who were probably the most excited by Romney. So I don't know how many voters will be excited by Ryan who weren't already excited by Romney, or how many Republican voters who were unenthused by Romney who will suddenly get excited because Ryan's on the ticket.

[stegosaurus]

I think its a wash; the tea partiers have their "true conservative" and the Obama camp has their boogeyman. This fall is going to be a bloodbath.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Here's where I'm at.

Earlier in this cycle, Republicans had a HUGE edge in enthusiasm. Huge. It slowly dropped away. Even though it's gone now, we know there is a lot of potential on this front for Mitt to tap into. On the orher hand, no matter how extreme Ryan is, Obama is still a lackluster president... I think he'll have a noticeable ceiling when it comes to enthusiasm.

So Mitt may be starting from behind, but he's got a lot more room than Obama. And for the first time, he's got a strong tool to close the gap with. And he's got a vision to boot.

[milhouse24]

Yeah, I just think that aside from the Liberals on this forum, and in the media; there just is no excitement anywhere on Main Street for Obama's re-election.  Its almost like the liberals just want to give up and let Romney win by default. 

Obama has very few winning issues to run on, and I just think in the next 3 months it will just be a depressed Obama campaign.  People will give him money and watch his commercials, and they'll remember all the warm and fuzzy feelings from 2008.  But they aren't going to vote for him because there is no boogeyman Bush to scare them.  There is no "being part of history" to re-elect the first Black man as president. 

I can't help but wonder if Romney picked a competent woman like Ayotte, would the media automatically declare the winner?  Just because it would be the greatest shiny ball topic to write about. 

[ajb]

Republicans this year sound so eerily like Democrats in 2004. Back then, we were angry at what a Republican president had done to the country, knew he had really lukewarm approval ratings, and knew that the polls were close all year, and we (or many of us) were convinced that all of those factors would somehow turn into victory in November.
Not saying that history has to repeat itself, but I do feel a bit of deja-vu reading what Republicans are saying about the race right now.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

I think it hurts the GOP. You will see many evangelicals go third party because neither party has an evangelical or Protestant Christian on the ticket.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Based on early reactions, both.

[morgieb]

Based on early reactions, both.

[angus]

Paul Ryan, one heartbeat away from the presidency.  How freakin' scary is that?!  Then again, Joe Biden is currently one heartbeat away, so I guess you could say it can't get any worse.  Yada, yada, yada.

I don't know wtf is wrong with these people we nominate.  I've been singing Romney's praises for over a year.  Well, okay, I've been insulting him and belittling him and mocking him, but you know what I mean.  I liked Obama too.  Bush the Younger as well.  All of them were respectable, but they all managed to choose evil, incompetent, or dastardly men as their running mates.  There must be some magic, secret formula:  pick some total asshole buffoon for your running mate, 'cause you know it'll make you look good by comparison.

Oh, well.  I guess it could be worse.  At least he's not the Unibomber or Oprah Winfrey or something like that.

[Joe Biden 2020]

I think its a wash; the tea partiers have their "true conservative" and the Obama camp has their boogeyman. This fall is going to be a bloodbath.

It's going to excite both parties equally.  So, yeah, it's a wash.  As far as the bloodbath this fall, I've got my soap, washrag, and towel ready.

I think the Ryan pick just throws life into a stale race.

Get your popcorn ready, this is going to have more blood than all of Bruce Willis's Die Hard movies combined.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Based on early reactions, both.

[milhouse24]

Republicans this year sound so eerily like Democrats in 2004. Back then, we were angry at what a Republican president had done to the country, knew he had really lukewarm approval ratings, and knew that the polls were close all year, and we (or many of us) were convinced that all of those factors would somehow turn into victory in November.
Not saying that history has to repeat itself, but I do feel a bit of deja-vu reading what Republicans are saying about the race right now.

I haven't had time to consider the similarities between Kerry-Edwards and Romney-Ryan.

I thought Romney could avoid the Kerry comparisons, but now Ryan has to avoid the Edwards comparisons of being too young, inexperienced, foolish, incompetent.  

I think Ryan is more experienced in government than Edwards, but I worry that Ryan will appear naive, young, and foolish.  Especially with his budget plan being so lofty and idealist.  It makes him look naive, foolish, unrealistic, and unable to be taken seriously as a competent and wise leader.  Ryan needs to come off as competent and caring.  

[J. J.]

I think its a wash; the tea partiers have their "true conservative" and the Obama camp has their boogeyman. This fall is going to be a bloodbath.

The tea partiers have their "true conservative" and both camps have their boogeymen.  It will increase the enthusiasm for Romney more so than for Obama.  I don't think it will be by a lot.

[President von Cat]

Can we quit with the weird posts about bloodbaths? We're going to have an interesting and tense election, but nobody will (or should) get killed or wounded in the process.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Based on early reactions, both.

[angus]

I was in the Obama office in York today.  Long story.  York's about 30 minutes west of here, deep in Mullet Country.  Never been to York before.  Certainly didn't intend to stop by the York County Obama HQ.  Anyway, they're pretty stoked there about the Ryan nomination.  The only campaign worker I talked to was one very flamboyant black dude, and he was all smiles and giggles about it.  Then again, he struck me as the giggling type, so it may not be a good barometer.  Still, my only data point says that the PA Democrats are lovin' it.

[milhouse24]

I was in the Obama office in York today.  Long story.  York's about 30 minutes west of here, deep in Mullet Country.  Never been to York before.  Certainly didn't intend to stop by the York County Obama HQ.  Anyway, they're pretty stoked there about the Ryan nomination.  The only campaign worker I talked to was one very flamboyant black dude, and he was all smiles and giggles about it.  Then again, he struck me as the giggling type, so it may not be a good barometer.  Still, my only data point says that the PA Democrats are lovin' it.

That might prove that Romney-Ryan are under-estimated.
Liberal Activists just don't get it.  They think Paul Ryan is scary and too out of the mainstream. 
Its almost like they forgot about the 2010 elections, but most of those volunteers are young and dumb. 
They'll be shocked at how much support Romney-Ryan will have from middle class mainstreet Americans.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

I was in the Obama office in York today.  Long story.  York's about 30 minutes west of here, deep in Mullet Country.  Never been to York before.  Certainly didn't intend to stop by the York County Obama HQ.  Anyway, they're pretty stoked there about the Ryan nomination.  The only campaign worker I talked to was one very flamboyant black dude, and he was all smiles and giggles about it.  Then again, he struck me as the giggling type, so it may not be a good barometer.  Still, my only data point says that the PA Democrats are lovin' it.

That might prove that Romney-Ryan are under-estimated.
Liberal Activists just don't get it.  They think Paul Ryan is scary and too out of the mainstream. 
Its almost like they forgot about the 2010 elections, but most of those volunteers are young and dumb. 
They'll be shocked at how much support Romney-Ryan will have from middle class mainstreet Americans.

And most of Romney's support comes from old racist white men. You said the same thing about defining Romney. If Obama succeeds like he did with Romney in casting him in a foul light, you'll be shocked how little support Romney-Ryan will have from middle-class Americans.

[milhouse24]

I was in the Obama office in York today.  Long story.  York's about 30 minutes west of here, deep in Mullet Country.  Never been to York before.  Certainly didn't intend to stop by the York County Obama HQ.  Anyway, they're pretty stoked there about the Ryan nomination.  The only campaign worker I talked to was one very flamboyant black dude, and he was all smiles and giggles about it.  Then again, he struck me as the giggling type, so it may not be a good barometer.  Still, my only data point says that the PA Democrats are lovin' it.

That might prove that Romney-Ryan are under-estimated.
Liberal Activists just don't get it.  They think Paul Ryan is scary and too out of the mainstream. 
Its almost like they forgot about the 2010 elections, but most of those volunteers are young and dumb. 
They'll be shocked at how much support Romney-Ryan will have from middle class mainstreet Americans.

And most of Romney's support comes from old racist white men. You said the same thing about defining Romney. If Obama succeeds like he did with Romney in casting him in a foul light, you'll be shocked how little support Romney-Ryan will have from middle-class Americans.

I'm not quite sure how much racism has to do with Obama losing. 
If Obama loses the middle class voters, then it will be because of his failures on the economy and other similar things, not because he is Black. 
Remember, he won in 2008 as a Black Man, so people aren't going to wake up tomorrow and realize they voted for a Black guy by mistake. 
Frankly, its completely naive to believe that "most" of Romney's supporters are racist old men.  Romney is polling better than McCain and he is taking a lot of the voters who voted for Obama.  Its just silly to say that "race" is still an important factor in swinging the election, when 2008 proved that race didn't matter to a majority of Americans. 
You can blame racism for Obama losing or Romney winning the election, but its not accurate in today's world, and its a myopic view of politics.  There are many other factors besides race that people care about. 

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

I was in the Obama office in York today.  Long story.  York's about 30 minutes west of here, deep in Mullet Country.  Never been to York before.  Certainly didn't intend to stop by the York County Obama HQ.  Anyway, they're pretty stoked there about the Ryan nomination.  The only campaign worker I talked to was one very flamboyant black dude, and he was all smiles and giggles about it.  Then again, he struck me as the giggling type, so it may not be a good barometer.  Still, my only data point says that the PA Democrats are lovin' it.

That might prove that Romney-Ryan are under-estimated.
Liberal Activists just don't get it.  They think Paul Ryan is scary and too out of the mainstream. 
Its almost like they forgot about the 2010 elections, but most of those volunteers are young and dumb. 
They'll be shocked at how much support Romney-Ryan will have from middle class mainstreet Americans.

And most of Romney's support comes from old racist white men. You said the same thing about defining Romney. If Obama succeeds like he did with Romney in casting him in a foul light, you'll be shocked how little support Romney-Ryan will have from middle-class Americans.

I'm not quite sure how much racism has to do with Obama losing. 
If Obama loses the middle class voters, then it will be because of his failures on the economy and other similar things, not because he is Black. 
Remember, he won in 2008 as a Black Man, so people aren't going to wake up tomorrow and realize they voted for a Black guy by mistake. 
Frankly, its completely naive to believe that "most" of Romney's supporters are racist old men.  Romney is polling better than McCain and he is taking a lot of the voters who voted for Obama.  Its just silly to say that "race" is still an important factor in swinging the election, when 2008 proved that race didn't matter to a majority of Americans. 
You can blame racism for Obama losing or Romney winning the election, but its not accurate in today's world, and its a myopic view of politics.  There are many other factors besides race that people care about. 

I'm not saying people aren't voting for Obama because their rascist (though some of them are). I'm saying that the GOP base of support are mostly old white men and Mormons.  And there was a report out in June that says Obama would have won by even more if he was black, by winning states like West Virginia, Tennessee, Arkansas, Kentucky, etc.
Obama's base are minorities and young people. I'm making the argument that the GOP base is dying out.

[milhouse24]

I'm not saying people aren't voting for Obama because their rascist (though some of them are). I'm saying that the GOP base of support are mostly old white men and Mormons.  And there was a report out in June that says Obama would have won by even more if he was black, by winning states like West Virginia, Tennessee, Arkansas, Kentucky, etc.
Obama's base are minorities and young people. I'm making the argument that the GOP base is dying out.

I think your generalizations about the Republican party voters are way off. 
Your obsession with Obama's race and racists is a 1950's way of thinking.  Your obsession with "blame the race card" for Obama's electoral failures is a superficial excuse.  There are significant issues that Democrats and Republicans voters care about that have nothing to do with the Skin color of the candidate.  I'm sure many Democrats would never vote for a Republican like Herman Cain, and that doesn't make them racists.  I would say being Black helped Obama way more than it hurt him in 2008 because of its "historical storyline" that the media created a popular celebrity personality to pursuade voters it was the cool and historical thing to vote for Obama.  I highly doubt a 2nd Year "White" Senator could ever be taken seriously as a presidential candidate no matter how bright his smile is. 
The white racists that vote against Obama is negligible to the outcome in 2008 or 2012; and the black voters who only wanted to vote for a "Black candidate" and not based on issues, is negligible but it probably made it cool for young white people to vote for the first black president. 
And while McCain was a flawed candidate because of his 70 year old age, he was a decorated military veteran with decades of service in the Senate.  McCain advocated traditional Republican platforms of financial restraint and tax reduction; and its just sickening and shameful when I hear Liberals say that all the McCain voters were racists, and voted on skin color instead of the issues and government experience.  Its just sad that liberals have to resort to name-calling everyone that disagrees with them as "Racists" and ignores the reality of tolerance in present-day American society.   

I'm not going to waste my time arguing over your naivity about voter demographics and your blind assumptions that Republicans are just old men and mormons.  Your statements exhibit how foolish and naive your mindset is.  You probably believe the liberal statement that Tea Partiers are just racist white men. 

I'll just say that the 2012 election will be based on real economic issues and not on skin color.  There will be a lot of white people and white Catholics who vote for Romney becuase they care about low taxes, and fiscal restraint. 

I leave it to the Liberals to rely on the Youth vote and immigrant vote to win the election.