MO: Survey USA: After GOP primary, McCaskill still struggling

[Miles]

New Poll: Missouri Senator by Survey USA on 2012-8-12

Summary: D: 40%, R: 51%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Miles]

Ouch...and she wanted to have Akin as the R nominee.

[Lief 🗽]

And this is in a poll where Romney only leads by +1. This isn't looking very good.

[Miles]

Whats most hurting her here is the Independents. In 2006, she got 92% of Democrats and won Independents by 8 points. Akin already has 90% of Republicans (what Talent got) but McCaskill is down to 80% of Democrats and trails by 16 with Independents.

[RogueBeaver]

Ouch...and she wanted to have Akin as the R nominee.

^^^ This. How long before DSCC pulls the plug?

[Tender Branson]

That looks like a lost case.

Maybe Obama's coattails will lift her a bit, but it will of course be not enough.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Ouch...and she wanted to have Akin as the R nominee.

^^^ This. How long before DSCC pulls the plug?

If Missouri is tightening up for the Presidential race, the Dems may want to funnel the GOTV money for the State via McCaskill so as to skirt contribution limits.

[morgieb]

Yeah, defs looks like Lean R at least.

[krazen1211]

Congrats to Senator to be Akin!

[greenforest32]

Did anyone really expect a shift one week after the primary considering the previous polls? If there's going to be a shift, it will be in the next month or two.

McCaskill is the most likely incumbent D senator to lose this election though. I used to think it was Tester.

[mondale84]

Did anyone really expect a shift one week after the primary considering the previous polls? If there's going to be a shift, it will be in the next month or two.

^^^^^^^This. Once the people of Missouri get to know Congressman Akin, the polls will tighten.

[Talleyrand]

Did anyone really expect a shift one week after the primary considering the previous polls? If there's going to be a shift, it will be in the next month or two.

^^^^^^^This. Once the people of Missouri get to know Congressman Akin, the polls will tighten.

I think this would be true had this race happened in a different state. I remember Angle jumped to an eleven point lead immediately after she was nominated, despite performing weaker in pre-primary polls. However, soon after, this lead dissipated and was replaced by narrow Reid leads in most polling.

But it should be noted that Angle clawed her way back into decent leads by September and was poised for victory until Senator Reid's machine pulled victory from the jaws of defeat on election night.

Missouri is about five to seven points more conservative than Nevada, plus in 2010, Robin Carnahan was routed by Roy Blunt. Carnahan was far more popular than McCaskill and Blunt wasn't much stronger than Akin. McCaskill does not have any sort of machine to rival Reid's, plus she will be outspent heavily in the last months (Reid and Angle were mostly on parity at that time, if I recall correctly). She is under-performing Obama by a couple of points at least, and she can't afford that, unlike Tammy Baldwin. Akin is already over 50, something Angle was never able to do. The state's popular Democratic Governor is trying to keep his distance from McCaskill instead of trying to held her and the President isn't making a strong effort in Missouri either. She's left pretty much on her own, with some backup from Democratic groups.

I do expect the polls to tighten a bit because of Akin's extreme views and controversial statements, but it won't be nearly enough for McCaskill to overcome. She's transformed into the role many people expected Ben Nelson to play in this cycle (An incumbent in a conservative state being pounded by outside money, having poor approvals, and permanently 5-15 points down in the polls despite a supposedly weak opponent). There's no way she's going down Blanche Lincoln style, but I could see her facing a defeat "akin" to that of Mike DeWine or Elizabeth Dole.

[Miles]

Did anyone really expect a shift one week after the primary considering the previous polls? If there's going to be a shift, it will be in the next month or two.

^^^^^^^This. Once the people of Missouri get to know Congressman Akin, the polls will tighten.

I think this would be true had this race happened in a different state. I remember Angle jumped to an eleven point lead immediately after she was nominated, despite performing weaker in pre-primary polls. However, soon after, this lead dissipated and was replaced by narrow Reid leads in most polling.

But it should be noted that Angle clawed her way back into decent leads by September and was poised for victory until Senator Reid's machine pulled victory from the jaws of defeat on election night.

Missouri is about five to seven points more conservative than Nevada, plus in 2010, Robin Carnahan was routed by Roy Blunt. Carnahan was far more popular than McCaskill and Blunt wasn't much stronger than Akin. McCaskill does not have any sort of machine to rival Reid's, plus she will be outspent heavily in the last months (Reid and Angle were mostly on parity at that time, if I recall correctly). She is under-performing Obama by a couple of points at least, and she can't afford that, unlike Tammy Baldwin. Akin is already over 50, something Angle was never able to do. The state's popular Democratic Governor is trying to keep his distance from McCaskill instead of trying to held her and the President isn't making a strong effort in Missouri either. She's left pretty much on her own, with some backup from Democratic groups.

I do expect the polls to tighten a bit because of Akin's extreme views and controversial statements, but it won't be nearly enough for McCaskill to overcome. She's transformed into the role many people expected Ben Nelson to play in this cycle (An incumbent in a conservative state being pounded by outside money, having poor approvals, and permanently 5-15 points down in the polls despite a supposedly weak opponent). There's no way she's going down Blanche Lincoln style, but I could see her facing a defeat "akin" to that of Mike DeWine or Elizabeth Dole.

That poll with Angle up 11 was also a Rasmussen...it was the only poll after the primary that showed Reid losing by 10. I felt good about him until October, when Angle was consistently up by 3-4 points. Jon Ralston still predicted Reid would win, so thats why I kept it in the Demcoratic column on my prediction map

At this point, it seem s like McCaskill could be on track to replicate Robin Carnahan's performance in 2010 if the numbers hold up. Still, it will probably tighten up by election day; at this rate, I say she loses by 6 or 7.